The Page
By Mark Halperin
CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Economy Electoral College Debates Confidence ACTION Republican hopes that the bailout bill's passage would soothe voter anxiety, calm the markets and move the story off the front page were dashed. The problems keep growing, financially on Wall Street and politically for the GOP: candidates are tanking in the polls, while surveys show voters still trust Barack Obama more on the issue. Obama has solidified his hold on almost every blue state, taken the lead in almost every purple state and gained small but solid leads in several large red states, including Ohio and Florida. John McCain was already bound by a limited set of combinations to reach 270 electoral votes; now, without a major change in the race's dynamic, he has no clear path. Sarah Palin revitalized her image with a folksy, defiant presentation, and McCain found a way to attack Obama with a smile, but neither performance changed the trajectory of the overall race. Obama and Joe Biden didn't take any big risks, but they didn't have to--and polls uniformly showed that voters thought they were the victors. McCain isn't the only Republican whose election prospects are in peril. With the economy in shreds and wrong-track numbers rising, GOP strategists fear a possible election wipeout. Democrats, with more money and a powerful voter-turnout operation, have begun to drop their poker faces.
RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS X X X X TIE
WINNER OF THE WEEK: DEMOCRATS
Back-to-back weeks of domination have left the Democrats in control of their destiny. It will take a slew of Obama errors, an outside event favoring McCain and an outsize racial-voting pattern for McCain to get back in contention.
NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.
WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X TIE X X TIE X X X 7 DEMOCRATS X X X X X X X X X 9
TIME/CNN Poll. Battlegrounds favoring Obama
HE LAGS IN INDIANA AND IS competitive in North Carolina, but Obama is ahead in other key states.
INDIANA
TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 51, OBAMA 46
2004 election results: BUSH 60, KERRY 39
NEW HAMPSHIRE
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 53, MCCAIN 45
2004 election results: KERRY 50, BUSH 49
NORTH CAROLINA
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 49, MCCAIN 49
2004 election results: BUSH 56, KERRY 44
OHIO
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 50, MCCAIN 47
2004 election results: BUSH 51, KERRY 49
WISCONSIN
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 46
2004 election results: KERRY 50, BUSH 49
All interviews were conducted via telephone by Opinion Research Corp. Oct. 3-6, 2008. The Indiana and North Carolina polls have an error margin of 4 percentage points among likely voters. The New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin surveys have an error margin of 3.5 points.
Sitting on A Lead
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With reporting by Randy James, Katie Rooney