The Page
By Mark Halperin
CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Economic Crisis Debate Running Mates Momentum ACTION Amid all the finger-pointing, Democrats and many Republicans agree that Barack Obama may now have a potentially decisive advantage. The furious electorate seems to be placing much of the blame for fiscal disaster and Washington's bedlam on President Bush and the GOP--the party of John McCain. National polls and many pundits suggested that Obama bested McCain in the first showdown. More important, McCain made little progress toward his two vital goals: painting his rival as an unacceptable choice for President and shaking up the dynamics of the race. If Obama isn't losing, he's winning, and McCain has few chances left to change the game. McCain gamely defends Sarah Palin, but her standing among Republicans and independents has dropped, and her widely watched TV interviews have reduced her to Dan Quayle status as a punch line for late-night comics. As conservatives correctly note, Joe Biden's latest gaffes have been largely ignored; but Palin demands closer evaluation than Biden, who has been in the arena for 36 years. Fueled by stronger polling numbers, Obama has won back his most important advantage: he now has more plausible ways to win 270 electoral votes than does McCain. The question "Is it over?" is premature, but it's now centermost on the minds and lips of a lot of insiders--including some top Republicans.
RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS X X X X TIE
WINNER OF THE WEEK: DEMOCRATS
The bailout flight, Palin media scrutiny and debate circus have limited Republicans' ability to shape the race's dynamics, allowing Obama to bask in 2008's natural political order. Biggest blowout week of the general election so far.
NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.
WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X TIE X X TIE X X X 7 DEMOCRATS X X X X X X X X 8
TIME/CNN Poll. Battlegrounds tilt to Obama
SURVEYS IN FIVE KEY states suggest that the Illinois Senator is building on his strength.
FLORIDA
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 47
2004 election results: BUSH 52, JOHN KERRY 47
MINNESOTA
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 54, MCCAIN 43
2004 election results: KERRY 51, BUSH 48
MISSOURI
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 49, MCCAIN 48
2004 election results: BUSH 53, KERRY 46
NEVADA
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 47
2004 election results: BUSH 51, KERRY 48
VIRGINIA
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 53, MCCAIN 44
2004 election results: BUSH 54, KERRY 45
All interviews were conducted via telephone by Opinion Research Corp. Sept. 28-30, 2008. The Florida, Minnesota and Missouri polls have an error margin of 3.5 percentage points among likely voters. The Nevada and Virginia surveys have an error margin of 4 points.
Whip It Good
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With reporting by Randy James, Katie Rooney