The Page
By Mark Halperin
CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Economy (short-term) Economy (medium-term) Economy (long-term) Demeanor ACTION While Barack Obama was cool, confident and deliberate, John McCain was initially frantic and overheated and seemed as panicked as his advisers--who recognized their campaign could go down the economic drain. Obama was perhaps a tad cautious and reserved but stayed in sync with fellow Dems on Capitol Hill by letting the political benefits of nationwide alarm boost their case. Barring disaster, every aspect of the campaign will now be seen through the lens of the economy, an issue on which Obama and his party are more trusted by voters. Any hope the Republicans may have had of regaining many of the staggering 80% of voters who think the country is on the wrong track has gone right off the cliff. McCain's best hope in the economic crisis is for voters to seek his Washington experience. His gambit to become a powerful voice for a solution could pay dividends--if it works. Obama now has a permanent backdrop from which to argue for change and link McCain with President Bush. Temperamentally, Obama might just be the most even-keeled presidential candidate in a generation. He was unfazed by the McCain-Palin poll surge and self-assured when addressing the economic challenges, soothing anxious voters looking for a leader. McCain was either fervently focused or flounderingly futile--and thus far less comforting.
RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS X X X TIE X
WINNER OF THE WEEK: DEMOCRATS
Despite pivoting from defense to offense, McCain was stuck in quicksand. The Republicans' post-convention bounce faded as it ran into the financial mess, and Obama moved back into the front-runner's position.
NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.
WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X TIE X X TIE X X X 7 DEMOCRATS X X X X X X X 7
TIME/CNN Poll. Battlegrounds remain tight
It's a close race almost everywhere, drifting to Obama as his newfound national-polling edge is reflected in key states.
COLORADO
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 47
2004 election results: BUSH 52, JOHN KERRY 47
MICHIGAN
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 46
2004 election results: KERRY 51, BUSH 48
MONTANA
TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 54, OBAMA 43
2004 election results: BUSH 59, KERRY 39
PENNSYLVANIA
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 53, MCCAIN 44
2004 election results: KERRY 51, BUSH 49
WEST VIRGINIA
TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 50, OBAMA 46
2004 election results: BUSH 56, KERRY 43
All interviews were conducted via telephone by Opinion Research Corp. Sept. 21-23, 2008. Among likely voters, all five polls have an error margin of 3.5 percentage points.
Too Big To Fail
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With reporting by Randy James, Katie Rooney