The Page
By Mark Halperin
CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Economy Momentum Image Tactics ACTION Hopeful Democrats ask, Can the latest Wall Street drama--and pervasive economic worry--carry their candidate straight into the White House? Perhaps, if Barack Obama conveys a clear plan and is seen to empathize with an anxious nation. In the end, though, the issue is such an albatross for the incumbent party that Obama may not need to improve his pitch to win. Republicans continue to ride the Sarah Palin wave (amplified by a certain brouhaha involving a farm animal and cosmetics) to better poll numbers, increased fund-raising and possible front-runner status. The Democrats made up some ground by week's end but are still reacting to the John McCain onslaught rather than driving the agenda and news cycle. McCain's self-engineered and Palin-fueled metamorphosis from experienced veteran to reformer-with-results maverick has proved effective, if risky. Obama has yet to cement his political persona--even as the electorate is readying its final judgment. McCain has stuck with an overarching strategy of defining Obama as "not what he seems." Meanwhile, Democrats have lurched from wide-ranging criticisms of Palin (her experience, her intelligence, her integrity) to competing assaults on McCain (his policies, his campaign maneuvers) with the consistency of moose pudding--weakening the Dems' message during the crucial post-convention phase.
RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] REPUBLICANS X X X DEMOCRATS X TIE
WINNER OF THE WEEK: REPUBLICANS
Democrats gained traction painting McCain as an out-of-touch, economically ignorant Bush clone who would sell his soul to win. But the GOP established its strategic offense long ago and is still playing the game better.
NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.
WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X TIE X X TIE X X X 7 DEMOCRATS X X X X X X 6
TIME/CNN Poll. Battlegrounds stay tight
There's no clear leader anywhere this week, forcing the candidates to play offense and defense in some big states.
FLORIDA
TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 48, OBAMA 48
2004 election results: BUSH 52, JOHN KERRY 47
INDIANA
TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 51, OBAMA 45
2004 election results: BUSH 60, KERRY 39
NORTH CAROLINA
TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 48, OBAMA 47
2004 election results: BUSH 56, KERRY 44
OHIO
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 49, MCCAIN 47
2004 election results: BUSH 51, KERRY 49
WISCOUNSIN
TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 50, MCCAIN 47
2004 election results: KERRY 50, BUSH 49
All interviews were conducted via telephone by Opinion Research Corp. Sept. 14-16, 2008. The Florida, Indiana and North Carolina surveys have an error margin of 3.5 percentage points, while Ohio's and Wisconsin's is 3 percentage points
Read Mark Halperin every day on thepage.time.com
With reporting by Randy James, Katie Rooney