The Page
By Mark Halperin
CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Russia Convention Planning Party Unity Scandals ACTION The Vladimir Putin--backed conflict with Georgia was a three-fer for John McCain: it reminded voters how dangerous the world is, allowed the Republican nominee to distance himself from the more accommodationist Bush Administration and let him reinforce his maverick image. Barack Obama did a fine job weighing in from his Hawaii vacation, but it just wasn't the same. Both presidential campaigns are scrambling far more than they publicly let on to put together their four-day prime-time TV extravaganzas. With the Democrats up first, at the end of the month, aides are busily redoing much of the planning done by the Democratic National Committee to clarify the convention's message. They have a charismatic leading man to build their show around, which helps a lot. Hillary Clinton is getting a prominent speaking role in Denver, and Obama and Bill Clinton reportedly had another pleasant phone chat, but the two camps are in the same dangerous place they've been in all year: civil in public but eye-rollingly dismissive behind the scenes. Most perilous: each side wants the other to make up first. Former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards admitted to an extramarital affair and to lying about it--but he left a lot of loose ends and unanswered questions for the press pack to chase. Edwards no longer plans to participate in the Democratic Convention, but the unseemly tabloid story line is an unwelcome distraction for the party in the homestretch.
RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] REPUBLICANS X X X DEMOCRATS X TIE
WINNER OF THE WEEK: REPUBLICANS
In the last week before the campaign's final sprint (running mates, conventions, debates and the inevitable October Surprise), the Republicans had a solid showing, while Obama rested and Democrats braced for a tough fight.
NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.
WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X TIE X X 4 DEMOCRATS X X X X X 5
270 or Bust. Obama goes for a big win, with risks
There are 538 precious electoral votes up for grabs on Nov. 4. To win, John McCain or Barack Obama needs to claim at least 270 of them.
The last two presidential elections were so close that both sides basically targeted only a handful of battleground states. Democrats in particular were cautious in 2000 and 2004. Facing a sea of red in the South and West, the party ended up focusing its resources on more winnable states whose electoral votes would just barely lift them to victory.
This time, the Republicans face the more challenging map, while Obama--flush with donations and volunteers--has a cushion. By competing in additional states, Obama can create more possible combinations to reach 270 electoral votes. And if he finishes strong, strategists in both parties agree, he could win more than 370--a solid mandate for the sweeping changes he has promised.
But every dollar and every hour spent in places like deeply Republican Georgia divert resources from must-win battlegrounds like Michigan. Some strategists wonder, then, if Obama's campaign risks trying to win by a landslide--and possibly losing by a hair.
270 370+
With reporting by Randy James, Katie Rooney