The Page

By Mark Halperin

Lingering Doubts About Obama

1 Can he win enough white working-class voters in the big swing states to beat John McCain?

The Pennsylvania primary confirmed that Barack Obama is struggling to capture these crucial, classic swing voters. His campaign says he can compete in many of the red states won by George W. Bush, but McCain remains an option for independents in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida--the Big Four that so often decide a presidential election.

2 Is he tough enough to be Commander in Chief?

Obama has denounced what he calls Karl Rove--style negative campaigning, asserting that voters are looking for a fresh brand of leadership. The Illinois Senator has never faced a rough general-election contest and on four separate primary days has failed to drive Hillary Clinton from the race, each time exhibiting a touch of entitlement and defensiveness rather than a fighting spirit.

3 Can he quell the impression that he's an elitist?

Clinton and McCain agree: Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund raiser about "bitter" Americans who "cling" to their guns and Bibles have carved new vulnerabilities into his once hard-to-target persona. His reticent manner and trail of supercilious comments have convinced Clinton that her Democratic rival can't win a general election and have inspired 1,001 potential Republican campaign commercials.

The Next Battlegrounds

The Dems retool their games as they head to Indiana and North Carolina for the May 6 primaries. In Indiana, Clinton needs older and independent suburban voters to fend off Obama's college-town and urban strength. Her blue-collar-recruiting drive in North Carolina's I-85 corridor aims to cut Obama's double-digit lead.

NORTH CAROLINA Pop. 9.06 million

[This article contains a complex diagram. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

Winston-Salem

Durham

Raleigh

Wilmington

Research Triangle Wealthy, educated lean toward Obama

Charlotte

I-85 corridor Blue-collar Clinton stronghold

Median annual household income, by county, in thousands

Minority population, by county

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.] $42,625 Median household income $45,394 24.8% College graduates 21.7% 10.7% Families below poverty level 9% 6.9% Foreign-born population 4.2% 70.3% White 86% 21.4% Black 8.7% 8.3% Other 5.3% 22.3% Population ages 20 to 34 20.7% 12.1% Population older than 65 12.4%

INDIANA Pop. 6.35 million

[This article contains a complex diagram. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

Gary

Fort Wayne

West Lafayette

Indianapolis

Bloomington

Evansville

Suburbs of Louisville, Ky.

Suburbs Clinton will target older voters outside capital

Close to home Obama has edge in urban areas near Chicago

Chicago region

Median annual household income, by county, in thousands

Minority population, by county

THE HOMESTRETCH Remaining Democratic primaries

[This article contains a complex diagram. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

Guam MAY 3

North Carolina, Indiana MAY 6

West Virginia MAY 13

Kentucky, Oregon MAY 20

Puerto Rico JUNE 1

Montana, South Dakota JUNE 3

Sources: Census Bureau: LandScan 2003/UT-Battelle. LLC

The Final Primaries Mark Halperin reports from the campaign every day on thepage.time.com