Thursday, Jan. 31, 2008
The Page
SUPER TUESDAY
The Delegate Hunt An unprecedented number of Americans will vote in primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5, a result of states elbowing ahead on the electoral calendar. While both parties have varying rules for allocating delegates, the sheer number of contests forces candidates to target just a handful of key states.
DEMOCRATS
o Almost 1,700 delegates of the total 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination will be up for grabs in 22 states
o Democratic contests are not winner-take-all. Candidates win delegates in proportion to their percentage of the vote (above a 15% threshold)
o This rule hasn't mattered much in past election cycles, when races wrapped up fairly early. This year, though, the two candidates could split the delegate count, dragging the campaign on past Feb. 5
REPUBLICANS
o Candidates will compete in 21 states for more than 1,000 delegates; only 1,191 needed to win the nomination
o Eleven of the Republican contests--including delegate-rich New York (101) and New Jersey (52)--are winner-take-all. The victor gets all the delegates
o The Republican primary process has been wired in the past to produce strong front runners early on in the election calendar
48 delegates as of Jan. 30
Hillary Clinton While she still leads in the polls of many key states, a list of wins won't be enough. High-percentage showings are critical to racking up delegates
KEEP AN EYE
CALIFORNIA With 441 delegates, it's the big kahuna. She's banking on Hispanic support
NEW YORK The state's junior Senator, Clinton needs to grab many of its 281 delegates
63 delegates as of Jan. 30
Barack Obama He must cut into Clinton's lead with wins in delegate-rich states. Hopes to wed his Southern strategy with liberals seduced by Ted Kennedy's endorsement
KEEP AN EYE ON
MASSACHUSETTS After Kennedy's nod, Obama has a better chance of scoring a chunk of its 121 delegates
MISSOURI A key swing state, with 88 delegates, Missouri has an open primary--good for Obama
96 delegates as of Jan. 30
John McCain Florida win aside, he'll still need an influx of campaign donations to compete with Romney's personal wealth. Will target purple-state independent voters
KEEP AN EYE ON
NEW YORK The big prize is the party's largest winner-take-all state, with 101 delegates
ALASKA The independent vote, which has favored McCain, is strong in this northern outpost
65 delegates as of Jan. 30
Mitt Romney Though he lags behind McCain, Romney will pitch himself as the "real conservative" in a play for those who consider McCain too much of a maverick
KEEP AN EYE ON
CALIFORNIA Northern California Mormons may swing some of the 173 delegates
CONNECTICUT After losing New Hampshire, he can't assume support from neighbors
GOD-O-METER
Bending Belief Focus on the Family Action has posted an online video in which its public-policy chief says Mitt Romney "has acknowledged that Mormonism is not a Christian faith, and I appreciate his acknowledging that." But a Romney spokesman has told TIME that's not true: "The governor has not made that acknowledgment." Focus, which is more bullish on Romney than on his rivals, says the video will remain in its online voter guide. And that's fine with the Romney camp, a senior adviser tells God-o-Meter. After all, the misinterpretation is less likely to anger those evangelical voters who don't want Mormons calling themselves Christian.
For daily God-o-Meter readings covering all the presidential candidates, visit beliefnet.com
[This article contains a chart. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]
SECULARIST
THEOCRAT
A Little of That Florida Glow
THE NEWS Finally the front runner, John McCain wins Florida and breaks his fund-raising slump with more than $1 million in online donations the next day.
Politics up to the minute Mark Halperin reports from the campaign every day on thepage.time.com