The Huckabee Trap

By Ramesh Ponnuru

In october the Republican Presidential candidates spoke before social conservatives, mostly Evangelicals, at the Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit. The event was awkward for several of the contenders. Mitt Romney's Mormonism does not go over well with all evangelical Christians. Rudy Giuliani is pro-choice. John McCain famously called some Christian conservatives "agents of intolerance" during his 2000 presidential campaign.

Mike Huckabee, the former Governor of Arkansas, had no trouble connecting with the audience. "I come today as one not who comes to you but as one who comes from you," he said. "You are my roots." He mentioned that he had been a Baptist pastor. He said same-sex marriage defies "the holy word of God." He called abortion a "holocaust." And then he came back to the question of roots. "I think it's important that the language of Zion is a mother tongue and not a recently acquired second language."

The crowd loved it. The council held a straw poll, and Huckabee won first place. Two top officials at the council, both Evangelicals, were so impressed that they have gone to work for the campaign. And now Huckabee leads in Iowa, thanks to the support of Evangelicals and other conservative Protestants.

Part of the reason for his campaign's success may be that it reflects new currents in evangelical thought. Younger Evangelicals oppose abortion even more than their elders do, but they are also more likely to believe that the protection of the environment and the alleviation of poverty are moral concerns that demand a political response. While Huckabee is the most ardent social conservative of the top Republican candidates, he is also the one who takes the economic anxieties of the lower middle class most seriously. When the Republicans met in Dearborn, Mich., to debate the economy, most of the candidates maintained that times were good and that people who thought otherwise just hadn't seen the statistics.

Huckabee had a different message: "For many people on this stage, the economy's doing terrifically well, but for a lot of Americans, it's not doing so well." He talked about people who have trouble paying their rent or getting health insurance or paying for college. Huckabee does not always have convincing answers to these problems, but at least he recognizes them.

On environmental issues, too, he has broken from the pack. Only John McCain and he have urged the Federal Government to combat global warming. "I'm one of the few Republicans who talk very clearly about the environment, health care, infrastructure, energy independence. I don't cede any of those to the Democrats," he says.

Previous evangelical politicians have run as single-issue candidates opposed to abortion. Huckabee isn't doing that. But he is very nearly a single-constituency candidate. His ads tout him as a "Christian leader," and he says that being a pastor is "pretty good preparation to lead a country." Asked to explain his rise in the polls, he invokes God's blessing.

Huckabee's faith-based politics have sometimes led him astray. As Governor, he supported letting convicted rapist Wayne DuMond out of prison--a cause championed by Huckabee's friend Jay Cole, a Baptist minister. DuMond then sexually assaulted another woman and killed her. In 1992 Huckabee argued for dealing with AIDS by quarantining those infected.

For some evangelical conservatives, Huckabee has come along at just the right time. They feel that Republicans have given them lip service without taking their concerns seriously. Huckabee's sincerity is not in doubt. But Evangelicals rarely move in unison. Previous candidates who tried to win the nomination by monopolizing them have had their moments--the Rev. Pat Robertson did surprisingly well in the Iowa caucuses in 1988--but eventually lost. Usually Evangelicals have split their vote, and their influence has thus permeated the party. When all the candidates have a shot at evangelical voters, all have an incentive to court them.

GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio estimates that half of Republican voters are evangelical or born again. These voters can run the party but only in coalition with others. If they go it alone, they end up isolating themselves. And while they have come a long way--which is why this time their favorite candidate has been a Governor and not only a preacher--they haven't come far enough to guarantee Huckabee the nomination. They could end up instead handing the GOP to Giuliani--probably the last thing they want.

Ponnuru is a senior editor at the National Review