The Lightning Rod

By KAREN TUMULTY, Jay Newton-Small

Hillary Clinton wasn't on the ballot last year in western Pennsylvania, but you might not have known that from the ad that ran on local television a month before the election. The spot featured images of Clinton with Democratic congressional candidate Jason Altmire, who had served on her health-care task force when she was First Lady. It was one of more than 30 negative campaign commercials run against Democratic candidates in which Clinton played a co-starring role, according to the research firm TNS Media Intelligence. "The opposition did research in my district," says Altmire, who won in a squeaker and is not endorsing a candidate. "You can imagine what they might do next cycle."

A fear among Democratic candidates has been growing along with Clinton's lead in the Democratic presidential primary, though few care to talk about it on the record. The 2006 election saw Democrats winning up and down the ballot in areas that have traditionally been hostile territory, from county elections on George W. Bush's Texas turf to House and Senate races in places like Montana, Virginia, Kansas and North Carolina. But some Democrats worry that those fragile gains could be difficult to hold in 2008 if one of the most polarizing figures in politics is at the top of the ticket. "We have a lot of districts that are 50-49, where if the wind blows too hard, it's going to switch," says Missouri House Democratic whip Connie Johnson, a John Edwards supporter. "Many tell me that Hillary would be a lightning rod in their districts." Union officials say similar concerns have influenced their decisions regarding candidate endorsements. That helps explain why one of the largest, the Service Employees International Union, made the unusual move of allowing its local and state chapters to decide for themselves which presidential candidate to back.

While recent national polls show Clinton matching up well against every potential Republican competitor, the picture looks very different in Republican and swing states. Says a purple-state Congressman who is nervous about holding onto his seat if Clinton is the nominee: "She certainly will get Republicans riled up. They will not only go out and vote against her--they'll stop off at their neighbors' house along the way and drag them to the polls."

A late-October Quinnipiac University survey underscored this point. Nationally, it showed Clinton being edged out by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 45% to 43%, within the margin of error. In red states, however, she ran behind him, 49% to 40%, and she trailed, 47% to 41%, in the purple ones. By comparison, Illinois Senator Barack Obama beat Giuliani by a single percentage point (43% to 42%) nationally but held that same margin in the purple states and came within 6 points (45% to 39%) in the red ones.

Clinton's strategists have argued that the other Democrats benefit from the fact that they are not as famous as she is and have not been subjected to 15 years of demonization by the Republicans. They add that any of Clinton's lesser-known rivals would see his negatives quickly rise should he get the nomination and be thrown into what is certain to be a brutal general election.

If the polls are to be believed, running with Clinton is something to which Democratic candidates had better resign themselves. And in that case, warns a purple-state Democrat, it's better to keep your misgivings to yourself. "No one wants to talk about her down-ticket effect for fear she'll win," the official says, "and she'll take it out on you."