Showdown in Pakistan

By Aryn Baker

Text messages started to fly around Pakistan a little after midnight on Sept. 22 as the government began detaining or arresting what would become nearly 100 opposition activists. "Has Mush gone mad?" asked a critic of President Pervez Musharraf. "Let them do their worst," another texted. "We will carry on." The arrests come as Pakistan's embattled leader is expected to meet a Sept. 27 deadline for filing paperwork required to compete in the Oct. 6 election. Critics say his candidacy violates a constitutional provision that until recently barred military members from running for office.

As Pakistan's Supreme Court considers the latest petitions contesting his re-election bid--it already dismissed three such cases in September--Musharraf promised the court he would step down as army chief if re-elected President. The general, who became head of state in a bloodless coup in 1999, was given a one-time exemption to the constitutional law, allowing him to retain both positions until the end of his current term.

But opposition leaders took no comfort in Musharraf's conditional agreement to loosen his grip on the military. If the man who tried--and failed--last spring to dismiss an increasingly independent Chief Justice of the Supreme Court loses at the polls next month, critics fear a declaration of martial law could soon follow.

Political analysts say the recent arrests may indicate that Musharraf feels he may not win a majority of the votes. "I think this is a sign of desperation," says Ayesha Tammy Haq, a prominent political-talk-show host, who notes that these arrests will only backfire against the already unpopular President. "You are not winning friends by doing something like this."