Election Guide

By Perry Bacon Jr., Massimo Calabresi, Unmesh Kher

THE HOUSE

These eight bellwethers may tell you how big Democratic gains will be on election night

Republicans 232 Democrats 201 Independent 1 Vacant 1

NEW MEXICO

*Attorney general Patricia Madrid (D )

*Rep. Heather Wilson (R)

This swing district may reveal how much Iraq costs the G.O.P.: Wilson is an independent centrist with strong security cred; Madrid's campaign has been all about the war.

CONNECTICUT

*Ex--1st Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D)

*Rep. Chris Shays (R)

Shays, a well-liked moderate, has served 19 years in Congress but is faltering in this anti-Bush year as Farrell has relentlessly attacked him for his support of the Iraq war.

FLORIDA

*State senator Ron Klein (D)

*Rep. Clay Shaw (R)

Klein has made this race in an older-than-average Miami district into a test of the G.O.P.'s prescription-drug plan and ill will over its attempt to partially privatize Social Security.

MINNESOTA

*Child advocate Patty Wetterling (D)

*Rep. Michele Bachmann (R)

Wetterling, whose son was abducted in 1989, won sympathy when the House page scandal broke. Bachmann has attacked her as a tax-and-spend liberal.

NEW YORK

*Businessman Jack Davis (D)

*Rep. Tom Reynolds (R)

Reynolds urged Mark Foley to seek re-election despite knowing of a complaint against him by the parents of a House page, but Reynolds was already vulnerable to the populist Davis because of his district's struggling economy. Pork projects like a $25 million biotech center in Buffalo are keeping him in the race.

OHIO

*County comm. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

*Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)

The fourth-ranking Republican in the House, Pryce is as clean as they come. But G.O.P.-dominated Ohio is awash in scandals, and her proximity to Foley-tainted Speaker Dennis Hastert has left her exposed to local anger with the party. Kilroy calls her a rubber stamp for Bush.

INDIANA

*Former Rep. Baron Hill (D)

*Rep. Mike Sodrel (R)

Just 1,400 votes separated these two last time. Sodrel has been touting his conservative stance on abortion and public prayer. Hill, a high school basketball star and former Congressman, accuses Sodrel of underfunding veterans' health-care programs. Sodrel denies it.

PENNSYLVANIA

*Attorney Lois Murphy (D)

*Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)

Murphy's fund raising initially put Gerlach atop the list of endangered G.O.P. incumbents. But he has bounced back, attacking Murphy as too liberal and demonstrating the power of suburban issues, campaigning on a platform of preserving open spaces and lower taxes.

THE SENATE

Dems will have a tough time taking this chamber. But watch these races

Republicans Current 55 Contested 15

Democrats Current 44 Contested 17

Independent Current 1 Contested 1

TENNESSEE

*Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D)

*Former Mayor Bob Corker (R)

Ford, who if elected would be the first black Senator from the South in more than a century, has emphasized his pro-gun, anti--illegal immigration stance to win this G.O.P.-leaning state. Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga, paints Ford as slick and inconsistent on security.

VIRGINIA

*Former Navy Secretary James Webb (D)

*Senator George Allen (R)

Allen's campaign took a sharp downturn in August after he used the racial slur macaca to refer to a Webb staff member of South Asian descent. Webb, a Vietnam veteran and former Republican, has been a vocal critic of the Iraq war, which Allen backed.

MISSOURI

*State auditor Claire McCaskill (D)

*Senator Jim Talent (R)

A ballot measure to expand stem-cell research, which McCaskill backs and Talent opposes, has become a major issue. McCaskill is working hard to link the incumbent Talent to Bush, while Talent emphasizes his support for biodiesel plants and his fight against crystal meth.

NEW JERSEY

*Senator Robert Menendez (D)

*State senator Thomas Kean Jr. (R)

New Jersey is historically a blue state, but Kean has an advantage: his father was a popular Governor in the 1980s. Kean has called Menendez part of his party's corrupt machine; Menendez says his foe is inexperienced.

OHIO

*Congressman Sherrod Brown (D)

*Senator Mike DeWine (R)

A corruption scandal that has implicated the G.O.P. Governor in Ohio, combined with the anti-Republican mood nationally, is hurting incumbent DeWine. Brown has highlighted the loss of manufacturing jobs across the state.

... THE LEGISLATING MASSES

Voters will decide on 208 ballot propositions, 11 of them involving eminent domain (see story, page 41). Other hot topics:

GAY MARRIAGE

So far 20 states have amended their constitutions to define marriage as the monogamous union of a man and a woman. Now eight more have similar proposals on their ballots; each of them already has a statute to that effect. In Colorado a separate measure asks voters whether to grant gay "domestic partnerships" the rights and benefits of married couples. A New Jersey Supreme Court ruling last week that committed gay couples are owed that much may energize conservative voters to turn out, especially in states with anti--gay marriage initiatives.

TOBACCO

Ballots in four states ask voters whether to hike tobacco taxes to fund health care and education programs. Three states will decide whether to ban smoking in all public places, or just most.

ABORTION

South Dakota will decide whether to overturn a law permitting abortion only to save a mother's life. Two states ask voters if a parent should be notified before a minor gets an abortion.

IMMIGRATION

Arizona has three measures on this controversial issue. One--inspired by the award of a Texas ranch to a pair of illegal immigrants who were pistol-whipped by its owner--would deny such migrants punitive damages in lawsuits. Another would bar those accused of serious felonies from posting bail. A third would deny illegal aliens state assistance in education and child care. In Colorado voters will decide whether their state should sue the Federal Government to enforce immigration laws.

MISCELLANY

A citizens' initiative in Arizona--which, with 19 measures on its ballot, has more than any other state--would require farmers to give pregnant pigs and calves raised for veal a little more living space. Another aims to pump up voter turnout by setting up a $1 million jackpot for one lucky voter every two years. A Nebraska measure proposes to double funds for treating compulsive gamblers, to $1 million. Voters in Colorado and Nevada will decide whether to make the possession of up to an ounce of marijuana legal, while those in South Dakota vote on whether pot should be legalized for medical purposes. Georgians may choose to amend their constitution to require that the state preserve its "tradition of fishing and hunting." And in Michigan, embroiled in controversy over the 2004 lifting of a 99-year ban on the hunting of mourning doves, voters get a shot at reinstating it. The reputedly monogamous dove is, by resolution of the legislature, the state "Bird of Peace."