Why Voters (and Politicians) Are Anxious

By Jackson Dykman, KAREN TUMULTY

Terrorism and war may be dominating the debate in Washington, but step outside the Beltway, and politicians will tell you that voters have other things on their mind. G.O.P. pollster David Winston says the group of swing voters to watch this year is the one he calls "maxed-out moms," the married women with children who were a big part of George W. Bush's re-election in 2004 but are now anxious and angry. What they want, he says, is relief from the squeeze of higher health-care bills, skyrocketing gas prices, credit-card debt, higher property taxes and college costs.

The Bush Administration touts a booming economy, but the measures officials like to talk about--GDP growth, rising productivity, job creation--are increasingly out of synch with what Americans are experiencing in their daily lives. For most people, wages are down because of inflation. Their "compensation" may be up because their employer pays more for their health care, but they can't buy milk with an insurance card. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has called it "puzzling" that the boom hasn't shown up in people's paychecks, saying later that the evidence "is not very overwhelming" that wages will rise soon. [This article contains charts. Please see a hard copy or a pdf.] The big picture looks good ... ... with one exception The U.S. economy since 2001

+2.3% Number of nonfarm jobs

+11.5% Gross domestic product

+18.4% Business worker productivity

+72% Domestic corporate profits

-0.5% Median household income

WAGES: Flat o The median income in the U.S. finally ticked upward in 2005 after declining for five years. That's good news, but only for the top 20% of earners--those making more than about $90,000 a year. Below that, everyone lost ground to inflation Median household income, in thousands 1970-2005 $46,326

o Household income might have increased, but individual earnings dropped again last year. A likely explanation is that more members of households are working to make ends meet. Men's earnings have been flat since the 1970s Men's median earnings, 1970-2005 $41,386

Women's median earnings, 1970-2005 $31,858

JOB GROWTH: Slow o After two negative years, job growth picked up in September 2003, with 5.6 million people added to payrolls since then. But that barely keeps up with population growth, which adds about 125,000 workers to the labor force each month

Monthly net job creation or loss, in thousands

Average growth of labor force 2001-2006

o The unemployment rate is low, just 4.7% in August, but that doesn't include people who have given up looking for work. The percentage of the working-age population that is employed remains below its January 2001 level Employment-population ratio 2001-2006 63.1%

REAL ESTATE: Shaky o The real estate boom of the past several years had Americans feeling wealthy, at least on paper. Millions of people have used their home equity like a credit card. But flat or dropping home prices may drain that money pool

Total home-mortgage debt

Total value of residential real estate

In trillions 2001-2005

o Another reason that home wealth may shrink is the increased use of nontraditional financing--adjustable-rate mortgages and interest-only loans. As interest rates rise, many homeowners face higher payments or even foreclosure

Percentage of all mortgages with adjustable interest rates

26.2% 2001-2006

All figures adjusted for inflation where applicable. Sources: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve; Mortgage Bankers Association