Forward in Israel?

By Tim McGirk

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wasn't shy about his preference in last week's Israeli election: Ariel Sharon's heir Ehud Olmert and his centrist Kadima party. Kadima did win, but barely, capturing 29 of the 120 Knesset seats. "I wish Olmert had more seats," Abbas sadly told his aides. "Now he can't give us anything."

Olmert no doubt wishes he had more seats too. Kadima's victory shows that a plurality of Israelis are apparently ready to sacrifice the ancient dream of a Greater Israel--stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River--for peace with a Palestinian state. But with his party far from a Knesset majority, Olmert will need other parties to back his plan for "disengagement" with the Palestinians--pulling out some Jewish settlements on the West Bank and creating permanent borders.

Progress toward lasting peace may be similarly restrained by Abbas' weak position. He must wrestle with the new Hamas government, which was sworn in last week--by videophone because Israel refused to let Hamas officials travel between the West Bank and Gaza. Israel refuses to talk with Hamas until the militants disarm and abandon their vow to destroy Israel. And Hamas leaders are incensed by one facet of Olmert's plan: if Hamas refuses to accept Israel, the Israelis will draw up permanent borders unilaterally. "Why should we recognize Israel," asks Aziz Dweik, Hamas' new Palestinian Assembly Speaker, "when Israel won't recognize our existence?"

In one of the most stirring sections of his election-night speech, Olmert showed whom he wanted to work with, addressing Abbas directly: "We are ready to compromise and give up parts of the land that we love, where the best of our sons and fighters are buried ... to allow you to fulfill your dream and live alongside us, in your state, in lasting peace." It was a fitting expression of hope for the leader of a party whose name is Hebrew for "forward." But after its disappointing showing, Kadima must be wondering whether it will be strong enough to live up to that name.

With reporting by Jamil Hamad, Aaron J. Klein