Winning the Pool

By RICHARD CORLISS

This is a tough year for Academy Award swamis. No epics. No blockbusters. A Best Picture fight between the gay movie Brokeback Mountain and the racial movie Crash. Talk about obscure--it's less like the Oscars, more like the Obies. So how to win the office pool? Trust your gut, but feel free to follow some of these tips.

HOW TO PICK THE TOP PIC In the past 25 years, the top Oscar has usually gone to the film with the most nominations, the winner of the Directors Guild award and a film set in the past. Vote Brokeback over Crash.

FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE The Palestinian Paradise Now was a fave for Foreign Film, until Hamas won. Go with South Africa's Tsotsi, kind of an all-black Crash that's just tough, sentimental and manipulative enough to prevail.

THE CAN'T-MISS SELECTION Documentary Feature should be an easy call: March of the Penguins, the icy heart-warmer that was a bigger box-office hit than any Best Picture nominee. And hey, the actors already have their tuxes.

THE TEARJERKER TEST Scan the Web for info on documentary and live-action shorts. If the synopsis makes you cry, vote for it. For animated short, try One Man Band. It's by Pixar.

BEST ACTRESS: THE HAG THEORY The past six Oscars went to babe types who made themselves look like sluts, frumps, ogres or guys. So Felicity Huffman, as a man turned mom in Transamerica, may eat Reese's pieces.