The Establishment's Pick?

By Karen Tumulty / Washington

Republicans, unlike Democrats, like to anoint their presidential candidates early. The leading indicator is often the G.O.P. moneymen, who rush to get into the game at the first whiff of a winner. In 1998 and '99 they got behind a newcomer Texas Governor and made him the early, formidable favorite for the 2000 race. Now, although it's two years until the first primary contest of 2008, a surprising number of those very same people seem to be settling on a most ironic choice: Arizona Senator John McCain, George W. Bush's bitter adversary in 2000 and a mischiefmaker whose name has become synonymous with the cause of making money less important in politics.

Reports recently filed with the Federal Election Commission show that McCain's Straight Talk America political-action committee raised more money in the second half of last year than that of any other potential G.O.P. presidential candidate. Even more significant is the number of big-name Republican fund raisers who are climbing aboard, suggesting the beginnings of a money operation that other contenders in the party will have difficulty matching. None of McCain's new allies are more impressive than former Congressman Tom Loeffler of Texas, a mega--fund raiser for Bush. Loeffler says he has told McCain he is willing "to be your bottle washer, or I'll fix the flat on the Straight Talk Express bus." While Loeffler notes that he has been "very, very, very close friends" with McCain since the 1970s, he says McCain is finding new chums among the same Republicans who invested so much to keep him out of the White House six years ago. "The battle of 2000 is far behind," Loeffler says, "and they are looking for a winner in 2008."

In some ways, it is the most practical of calculations: conventional wisdom has it that while a Republican primary would be difficult for McCain because his maverick bent has alienated many in his party, his crossover appeal would be hard to beat in a general election, especially if the Democrats nominate a polarizing candidate like Hillary Clinton. And fund raisers, more so than party activists, have always kept their eyes focused on the next election. McCain's strategists note that he is talking a lot these days with California investor Gerald Parsky, who raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Bush in 2000, and New York financier John Moran, who was Bob Dole's national finance chairman in 1996. Parsky has not picked a horse yet for 2008 and says McCain consults him primarily on economic policy. But he says of McCain, "He is a great public servant, and I think very highly of him."

The moneymen don't always make the winning bet. Just ask President John Connally or President Phil Gramm. And McCain generates little enthusiasm among much of the G.O.P. rank and file, who fume about his many apostasies, not the least of which is the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law.

Still, the Senator is looking more and more as though he could be the mainstream G.O.P. man. He won points in 2004 for the energy with which he campaigned for Bush and for his unwavering support of the Iraq war. His reformer credentials could help inoculate Republicans from the growing ethics scandals in Washington; his efforts to curb Congress's practice of slipping lobbyist-sponsored earmarks into spending bills have put him on the same page as those in the party who are most alarmed over how the deficit has exploded under Bush and the Republican Congress. McCain's public spat with Democratic rising star Senator Barack Obama has not hurt him with his fellow Republicans either. "If you pick a fight with a Hillary Clinton or an Obama, the base watches and approves," says activist Grover Norquist, who is no McCain fan. "So it sends all the right vibes."

McCain also caught a break last week when James Webb, Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan, announced he would run as a Democrat against Republican Senator George Allen of Virginia. Allen had hoped to have only token opposition in his re-election bid this year, making it possible for him to also build the machinery for a 2008 presidential run. But with the charismatic Webb as a possible opponent, Allen will have to stick close to home.

McCain's strategists say that while the party establishment is softening toward McCain, the candidate has not changed. Says one: "The Republican mainstream is shifting, and all of a sudden, John is in it." Surely no one could be more surprised than McCain by how things turn in politics: the scourge of the Establishment is finally finding love in the G.O.P.--and it's coming from the people who write the biggest checks.