A Slow Iran Squeeze

By Elaine Shannon

As Iran shows no signs of giving in to global calls to cease its nuclear-research activities, Western nations have been mapping out a careful, incremental plan to stop Tehran. The West's plan is informally known to diplomats as the frog strategy--with no disrespect to the French, who are among its key tacticians. The name refers to the old saw that if you want to boil a frog, you put the unsuspecting amphibian in a pot of cold water. "This time it will be an Iranian frog," says a European diplomat. "The strategy is to heat slowly but steadily and try to keep the frog inside."

The plan was crafted by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her French, German and British counterparts. The E.U. trio requested a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, now set for Feb. 2, to consider referring Iran to the U.N. Security Council. If the case goes there, the allies plan a three-step approach: first, a mild resolution exhorting Tehran to end its questionable atomic activity voluntarily. If after two or three months Iran remains intransigent, they would then propose a stronger Security Council order based on the U.N.'s authority to combat threats to international peace. Step three would call for targeted sanctions, such as a freeze on government bank accounts a possibility for which Tehran apparently began planning last week when it started to shift its foreign-currency reserves from E.U. banks.

The frog strategy may infuriate U.S. hard-liners who argue that it does little to hinder Iran's nuclear work right now. But proponents say that only the go-slow approach can win support from Russia and China. "The diplomacy with the Russians and the Chinese is very intense," says a key official. Rice, scheduled to travel to London next week for a conference on Afghanistan, may stop first in Moscow for talks with Russian officials. She needs Moscow's backing to win Beijing's--and ultimately to gain Iran's compliance. As for a step four to the strategy, there is no clear one yet: an uncooperative frog is something nobody wants to talk about.