Cold Shoulder

By DOUGLAS WALLER

Donny Carroll, a Republican most of his working life, voted for George W. Bush in 2004 because Bush "was trying to do a good job." Ask him how he feels now, and you get a different answer. "If he was running again, I wouldn't vote for him," says the 61-year-old retired plumber from Eureka, Calif. Why not? Medicare's new prescription-drug benefit is too complicated, he says, adding that "the government seems more concerned about drug companies making a profit than the people getting insured."

Carroll isn't the only one feeling disenfranchised. Older folks' growing disillusionment with Bush bodes ill for Republicans in midterm elections, which are less than a year away. Older Americans are a key G.O.P. constituency. Yet a Wall Street Journal--NBC News poll last month found that the G.O.P.'s numbers, which have been sinking, are especially weak among seniors: 58% of respondents 65 and older disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy, compared with a 53% disapproval rating for those under 65. Senior support of Republicans in Congress shows signs of eroding too, with more saying they would like Democrats to win control.

Difficulty in understanding how to enroll for the new prescription-drug benefit is the biggest issue. Bush claims the new plan offers valuable choices. But seniors find them paralyzing. In most states, they must select from among 40 different insurance plans when what they wanted was "a simple delivery of their prescription drugs," says Richard Fiesta, director of government and political affairs for the Alliance for Retired Americans. That is aggravated by a looming May 15 enrollment deadline.

Dean Cunningham, 72, a retired railroad-company manager in Albuquerque, N.M., is further worried that he will lose his more generous employer-provided drug plan. He says he can see the day "when corporations get out of providing prescription-drug coverage for retirees and let the government cover it." Angry that Congress hasn't done more to ensure that he can keep his private plan, Cunningham, a lifelong Republican, vows to vote against his state's G.O.P. incumbents in the next congressional elections.

"Over the past year we also had the Social Security debate, in which they didn't support the President's proposal," G.O.P. pollster Bill McInturff says of seniors. "We had $3-a-gal. gasoline for this price-sensitive constituency. And they were concerned about the war in Iraq. So there's been a lot of stuff going on that's making them pretty riled up."

Surveys have found the elderly to be satisfied with the Social Security system as is--and skeptical of Bush's warnings. "Let's just tweak it to make sure it works," says Carroll.

Democrats hope to keep the discontent burning. Representative Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, sent a memo to the party's House candidates around the country, urging them to "host town hall [meetings] with seniors, visit senior centers and build a higher profile explaining that the Republicans' plan for Medicare is not working."

The White House has put prominent retirees, including former Senator Bob Dole, on the road to promote the prescription-drug program. The party is urging candidates to meet with seniors to explain the benefits. Once the program gets under way and "they see how much they actually save, that's going to change some minds," predicts Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Meanwhile, the G.O.P. can take comfort that even though voters like Carroll and Cunningham are angry with the party, they also concede they aren't sure Democrats can do any better.