What About Jeb and Arnold?

By Daniel Eisenberg

One is the brother of the president, a member of the nation's reigning Republican political dynasty; the other is a movie star who married into the nation's most enduring Democratic political dynasty. Between them, they govern two of the biggest states in the country. But while Florida's Jeb Bush and California's Arnold Schwarzenegger certainly have the highest profiles of any state leaders in the U.S., neither has been able to translate that celebrity into full-blown success. In fact, each has learned the hard way that star power doesn't help nearly as much after an election as before one.

Few elected officials have stumbled as badly of late as Schwarzenegger, 58, who rode a wave of voter discontent into office in a recall election in late 2003. His reversal of fortune reached its apogee last week in another special election, when four ballot initiatives he pushed were all resoundingly defeated. The measures would have increased from two to five the number of years it takes schoolteachers to qualify for tenure, required public-sector unions to get permission from members before using their dues for political campaigns, turned congressional redistricting over to a panel of retired judges rather than legislators, and created a new mechanism to cap government spending. Their rejection was a stinging referendum on Schwarzenegger, whose approval ratings have dropped from 61% a year ago to 33%, with just over a year before he runs for re-election. "If I would do another Terminator movie," Schwarzenegger told reporters, "I would have Terminator travel back in time to tell Arnold not to have a special election."

Indeed, a year ago, Schwarzenegger had very little to regret. Initially, he used his celebrity to pass a stem-cell research funding initiative and a major bond issue that tempered rising budget deficits, while working well with a Democratic-controlled legislature to secure passage of a popular gun-control law and environmental measures. But perhaps because success came so easy, he stopped playing the role of consensus builder. After all, many of the ballot initiatives he pushed--as well as his failed effort earlier this year to bring the costly public pension system under control--made sense. California's redistricting virtually ensures that incumbents never lose, the state continues to spend beyond its means, and its schools need an upgrade. But by attacking nurses, teachers and other public employees rather than negotiating with them, Schwarzenegger came across as a bully, not a reformer.

Unlike Schwarzenegger, Jeb Bush, 52, has never tried to claim he's an outsider or antipolitician. But his commitment to conservative principles has proved to be a mixed blessing for both himself and the state of Florida. For all his genuine accomplishments in such areas as school accountability, economic diversification and management of the state's explosive growth over his seven years in office, Bush has too often been tripped up by partisan plays. There was his much criticized role in the 2000 election recount, but he also looked desperate, fighting to keep Terri Schiavo alive earlier this year and suddenly supporting a G.O.P. congressional plan to allow oil drilling 125 miles off the coast of Florida. Whether his latest proposal, to move Florida's Medicaid patients into managed-care plans, turns out to be a sensible reform or a conservative flop remains to be seen.

At times, basic competence has been an issue for Bush. His privatization of certain government functions, such as payroll, public defenders and technology, has been beset by logistical snafus and a few contracting scandals. And although he was considered a model of leadership during four hurricanes in 2004, Bush did not get such good reviews in the wake of Wilma because relief supplies were hard to come by. As he is about to begin his final year in office, Bush is often mentioned as a Republican presidential prospect in 2008 or 2012. Still, many observers think he will focus instead on promoting the possible political career of his telegenic son George P. Bush. Like any savvy politician, Jeb knows--as surely as Arnold does--that the only way to maintain star power is to keep building the brand.

With reporting by Reported by Tim Padgett/Miami, Michael Peltier/Tallahassee, Jeffrey Ressner/Los Angeles