The Al-Sadr Factor

By Christopher Allbritton, Bobby Ghosh, Meitham Jasim

For Iraq's Shi'ite-led government, the stampede in Baghdad that killed nearly 1,000 Shi'ite pilgrims last week may become a political calamity as well. The stampede was set off by rumors that a suicide bomber was about to blow himself up on the bridge leading to one of the city's most sacred Shi'ite shrines. Now public outrage at the government's handling of the disaster has raised the possibility that voters will express their anger by rejecting Iraq's proposed constitution when it comes up for a vote in October.

The disaster could provide fuel for efforts by Sunni opponents of the proposed constitution to court Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi'ite cleric who has twice led armed uprisings against U.S. troops. The base of his support is in the Shi'ite slum of Sadr City, home to one-third of Baghdad's population. If al-Sadr called on his poor Shi'ite followers to join Sunnis in opposing the charter, it is likely it would be defeated. Abdul Salam al-Qubaisi, spokesman for the Association of Muslim Scholars, a hard-line Sunni group, claims al-Sadr is working to bring out the no vote. "We need Muqtada's support to defeat the constitution," he says. "We are already working closely with him."

It's possible al-Sadr is using his flirtation with the Sunnis to win concessions from other Shi'ite leaders. Fattah al-Sheikh, a member of al-Sadr's movement, told TIME the cleric has not yet made a decision on the constitution. Though most Shi'ite leaders support it, al-Sadr in the past has criticized the idea of dividing Iraq into three autonomous regions, as called for in the constitution.

Rejection of the constitution would almost certainly delay any plans for a partial pullout of U.S. troops. But the U.S. has officially refused to negotiate with al-Sadr because of his history of insurrection. That leaves it to the Iraqi government to try to win him over. Says government spokesman Laith Kubba: "There is a lot of effort behind the scenes to bring everybody on board." --By Christopher Allbritton, Aparisim Ghosh and Meitham Jasim