Offshore Job Myths

By Jyoti Thottam

China and India trained more than 480,000 engineers in 2003. Is there no limit to the number of American jobs that will move there? Actually, there is. The McKinsey Global Institute, research arm of the consulting firm, spent a year trying to find the "theoretical maximum" number of jobs that could move offshore from the U.S. and Europe. Its conclusion: 11% of 1.46 billion global-services jobs could be performed remotely, but only 4.1 million of those jobs will actually move offshore by 2008. One big reason: after interviewing dozens of hiring managers in China, India and elsewhere, McKinsey found that only 13% of recent overseas graduates were considered realistic candidates. That doesn't mean the U.S. can ignore outsourcing, says McKinsey's Diana Farrell: as many as 52% of engineering jobs and 31% of finance and accounting jobs could be exported; sectors like retail and health care are less vulnerable, but could account for 9.1 million job losses. While not the avalanche some fear, those numbers are big enough to make a difference. --By Jyoti Thottam