NBC's New Reality

By Daniel Eisenberg Simon Crittle/New York; Jeanne McDowell/Los Angeles

Even by the outsize standards of the high-profile network-television business, NBC Universal Television Group president Jeff Zucker, 39, has always stood out for his cockiness and competitive fire. There was the time near the end of his tenure as Today executive producer when Zucker, who was only 26 when he made the show the morning leader, hired a helicopter to buzz over an outdoor concert for ABC's Good Morning America. Then there was his recent quip to an industry trade publication that "most of the viewers of [CBS] are in nursing homes." At last spring's network up-front presentation, where advertisers decide how to spend their billions on the upcoming fall schedule, Zucker made the bold claim that despite the retirement of such stalwarts as Friends and Frasier, "[NBC's] Thursday nights are going to be even stronger."

So far, NBC isn't making good on his promise. And Zucker, to the hushed delight of many of his rivals in New York City and Los Angeles, probably isn't feeling quite as full of himself. Five weeks into the fall television season, NBC prime-time viewership is off about 10%, and its once dominant share of the 18to-49-year-old audience coveted by Madison Avenue has dropped by double digits, according to Nielsen Media Research. For the first time since 1987, the Peacock is no longer No. 1 on Thursdays, its signature night of "Must See TV." Even The Apprentice is off slightly in its sophomore year, while Friends spin-off Joey and the costly, much hyped animated series Father of the Pride haven't delivered as much as had been hoped.

Coming at a time when broadcast networks have to work harder and harder to keep viewers from choosing alternatives like cable, video games and the Internet, the challenge faced by NBC and Zucker is their most serious in at least a decade. Not only has the once geriatric CBS raced to the top of the network pack with its powerful CSI franchise, but perennial also-ran ABC has the season's sole breakout hits, Lost and Desperate Housewives, a steamy evening soap that Zucker passed on. If the ratings slide continues, it could put a dent in NBC's well-cultivated image as the upscale network of choice for Madison Avenue and make it hard for NBC to match the record $2.9 billion in up-front advertising it took in last spring. For CBS, says its chairman, Leslie Moonves, "being number one has been a long time coming. The amount of money now changing hands on Thursday night will end up being hundreds of millions."

Were NBC's woes to go on for an extended period, they could slow the continuing, rapid ascent of Zucker, who in his three- plus years of running NBC's entertainment programming failed to develop any real comedy or drama breakout hits. Since May he has overseen all NBC Universal's vast TV properties, including news channels CNBC and MSNBC; thriving cable networks like Bravo, USA and Sci-Fi; upstart Spanish-language network Telemundo; and the Universal TV studios. Along with his business-side colleague Randy Falco, Zucker is considered a favorite to succeed NBC Universal CEO Bob Wright.

Not surprisingly, none of that appears to faze the diminutive, coolly confident Zucker, a Miami native with a notoriously short attention span who was once described affectionately by NBC News anchor Brian Williams as the fantasy love child of Don Rickles and Don Corleone. "There's a lot of attention on us because we have been king of the hill for the last decade. But we are exactly where we thought we would be," says Zucker. A master salesman whose ability to massage stars' egos and broker deals with talent is legendary, Zucker takes a decidedly glass-half-full view of NBC's current stumbles. The hits of his competitors, he insists, are proof that the rumors of network television's demise are greatly exaggerated.

This early in the season, as Zucker and his minions argue, it may be premature to sound the alarms. After all, following the lead of pioneers like Fox and HBO, Zucker recently pronounced the end of the traditional September-May viewing calendar, and he has a slew of new shows ready to roll out, including an American takeoff on the BBC hit The Office and a boxing reality show, The Contender. To help ensure some much needed stability in such an unpredictable business, Zucker has re-signed Law & Order creator Dick Wolf through 2008 (a fourth edition is in the works) and engineered a smooth transition at the Tonight Show, where his old Harvard classmate Conan O'Brien will take over from Jay Leno in 2009.

Moreover, NBC is still the cash cow of a media powerhouse that should provide its parent, General Electric, with nearly $2.5 billion in profits this year. Still, "the playing field has considerably leveled," says Leland Westerfield, a media analyst at the investment firm Harris Nesbitt. "This is NBC's first year of rebuilding, and the appearance of anything less than dominance is considered defeat."

Defeat is something Zucker--who was a high-ranked junior tennis player and has twice beaten colon cancer--isn't used to. Ever since he embraced hard news and used stunts like outdoor concerts to turn Today into NBC's gold mine, Zucker has been the network's golden boy. From the time he got his start, doing advance research for NBC's coverage of the 1988 Seoul Olympics, "Jeff was tireless and energetic," says his boss Bob Wright. "In his kind of work, you have to anticipate everything and be willing to change on a dime. Jeff has that ability, and not many people do."

Despite having no background in prime-time entertainment, Zucker was dispatched in late 2000 to Burbank, Calif., to help re-energize the network, which had failed to recognize the explosive appeal of reality TV. Within a short time, Zucker was doing what many observers say he does best: putting a new spin on a proven concept and promoting the heck out of it. He generated two hits in the gross-out fest Fear Factor and The Apprentice. "NBC thought reality TV was beneath them," says Steve Friedman, Zucker's producing predecessor at Today. "[He knew] that you can never be above the people you serve."

He also gave NBC's prized young adults more of what they loved, persuading the Friends cast to come back for one more year and adding eight extra minutes to some episodes in a tactic he dubbed supersizing. But many of the debuts on his watch, from Emeril to Coupling, were duds, though Las Vegas has been a modest success. Last year's hiring of savvy programmer Kevin Reilly from FX (Nip/Tuck, The Shield) to run NBC Entertainment day to day could help make up for that weakness.

Observers say it's not just his lack of a golden gut for the next big hit or a groundbreaking idea that has hamstrung NBC; it's also arrogance. "NBC's [successful] shows masked their weaker spots, which are now more obvious," says Stacey Lynn Koerner, an executive vice president at ad buyer Initiative Media. "[The Apprentice] made executives more confident, and they didn't address the problem." Now if Zucker can work his magic one more time, he'll really have something to brag about. --Reported by Simon Crittle/New York and Jeanne McDowell/Los Angeles