Measure of a Tight Race

By JAMES CARNEY/WASHINGTON

How close--and how unpredictable--is the 2004 presidential contest? Just a month ago, in the wake of the four-day salute to John Kerry's Vietnam combat record that doubled as the Democratic Convention, political analysts were declaring that given the way undecided voters were leaning, the race was Kerry's to lose. Now he appears to be losing it--or at least that slight edge he had gained. First came the Senator's latest clear-as-mud explanation of his position on the Iraq war; then, more harmfully, came the sabotage by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Just as President Bush and the Republicans take their turn in the spotlight at their gathering in New York City, Kerry finds himself having to prove all over again to wary swing voters that he has what it takes to be Commander in Chief.

This is not to say President Bush is now sailing toward victory. In a TIME poll of likely voters last week, Bush pulled in 46% vs. Kerry's 44% in a three-way race with Ralph Nader (5%). The poll showed a shift from early August, when Kerry had a 5-point lead, though in both cases the difference was within the margin of error. Bush may be showing movement, but more registered voters still say it's time for someone else to be President (49%) than believe Bush deserves to be re-elected (46%)--numbers sure to give G.O.P. stalwarts heartburn. It's even worse among swing voters, only a third of whom say Bush merits a second term.

TIME's poll holds more worrisome news for the Kerry camp. On virtually every question concerning which candidate voters trust more on a given issue, Kerry's support has fallen. The 51%-to-42% advantage on managing the economy that he held in early August has eroded to 46% to 43%, a near tie on the matter voters say is the most important to them. Kerry's lead has dwindled from 18 to 8 points on handling health care, an area previous polls suggested would be a major Democratic strength.

It is on matters of war, leadership and strength of character that Kerry has suffered the most damage in recent weeks. Despite continued misgivings about the Iraq situation, voters now say they trust Bush more than Kerry to handle it (49% to 41%). Bush's lead on managing the war on terrorism, which Kerry had all but eliminated, has expanded again to 10 points (51% to 41%). Similar majorities view Bush as a stronger leader and more capable Commander in Chief of the armed forces. Most troubling for Kerry is the drop in the percentage of people who say they have a favorable opinion of him, to 44% from 53% a month ago. Bush now scores higher at 46%, though his unfavorability rating is higher too, at 39%, compared with Kerry's 33%.

With the President and his party drawing all the media attention this week, Kerry's predicament will probably get worse before it can improve, which is why his recent slide, however modest, is so troubling to Democrats. With just two months to go before Election Day in this remarkably tight race, even a slight slip in the polls could prove fatal. --By James Carney/Washington