The Next Big Thing
By Maryanne Murray Buechner and Mitch Frank
A Brief History of "The Big Thing"
1900s
THE BIG THING
Plastics Bakelite is not sexy. But when New York chemist Leo Baekeland invented it in 1907 by tightly controlling the heat and pressure of volatile chemical reactions, he created the first completely synthetic substance. Hardened and shaped, Bakelite--or phenol formaldehyde--was impervious to heat, acids and electricity, allowing its use in everything from cookware to adhesives to car electrical systems. Chemists were soon making all sorts of polymers, launching a plastic century.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Cellophane, nylon, Teflon, Velcro, acrylic, Plexiglas, spandex, polyester, PVC, that famous line in The Graduate
RUNNER-UP
Airplanes On Dec. 17, 1903, Orville Wright flew for 12 seconds. It was the culmination of seven years of experiments on powering and controlling a glider by him and his brother Wilbur. Their first public flight was in 1908.
ETC.
Air conditioning Tea bags Neon light Teddy bears Crayola crayons Safety razors Vacuum cleaners Coffee filters
'10s
THE BIG THING
The Assembly Line In 1908 Henry Ford's company was turning out a car every 12 hours. Stockholders were impressed, but Ford wanted more and began experimenting with production-line techniques, moving parts along while each worker performed one task. In 1913 his new plant opened and began producing a Model T every 93 min.; by 1925 that was down to 15 sec. The productivity gains allowed Ford to turn a rich man's plaything into a mass product. By paying $5 an hour, he gave workers enough cash to drive one.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Highways, suburbs, the minimum wage, U.S. economic might, NASCAR, assembly-line robots, the global economy
RUNNER-UP
Supermarkets It all began with a Piggly Wiggly in Memphis, Tenn., in 1916. Clarence Saunders conceived and patented the idea of customers' walking though aisles of goods instead of asking a clerk behind the counter for everything. From there it was a straight leap to Costco.
ETC.
Formica Stainless steel Zippers Tanks Neon lighting Geiger counters Mammography Traffic lights
'20s
THE BIG THING
Television The first show was a glass panel with a line drawn on it. In 1927, as Philo Farnsworth watched a receiver, his brother-in-law turned a slide in front of a camera. "There you are," said Farnsworth, "electronic television." It was not that simple: Farnsworth spent the next two decades fighting with RCA over patent rights, sinking into depression and drinking. He forbade his kids from watching TV, saying there was nothing worthwhile on.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Couch potatoes, newscasts, The Ed Sullivan Show, MTV, VCRs, camcorders, reality TV, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy
RUNNER-UP
Penicillin In 1928 Canadian doctor Alexander Fleming, below, noted that Penicillium mold destroyed colonies of bacteria, proving that medicines could kill disease-causing pathogens inside the body. The true significance was realized in the 1940s when a powder form of the drug was made.
ETC.
Liquid-fuel rockets Band-Aids Synthetic insulin Polygraph Scotch tape Kleenex Iron lungs Bubble gum
'30s
THE BIG THING
Radar Physicists had proved in the 1880s that radio waves are reflected and refracted, but it was only the approach of a second world war that pushed nations to develop a "radio detecting and ranging" system. All the major powers devised methods of measuring radio waves to give early warning if long-range bombers were approaching. The U.S. Navy tried a radar prototype in 1922 but abandoned it until 1930. By 1938 the British deployed a home-defense system that proved invaluable during the Battle of Britain. Warning wasn't always enough: radar near Pearl Harbor detected Japanese planes approaching.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Air-traffic controllers, highway speed traps, F-117 Stealth fighters, weather satellites, clairvoyant M*A*S*H character
RUNNER-UP
Computers The first computer was a figment of the imagination of Alan Turing, left. In a 1935 math paper, he created the "Universal Turing Machine," hypothesizing that a machine could mechanically solve all mathematical problems. The concept became the basis of computer programming. Turing went on to work on real computers and develop theories on artificial intelligence.
ETC.
Electric guitars Jet engines Antihistamine Parking meters Photocopiers Flashbulbs Beer cans Ballpoint pens
40s
THE BIG THING
The Bomb After a U.S. plane dropped an atom bomb on Hiroshima and the mushroom cloud cleared, black rain fell from the sky. Survivors thought God was sending them relief, but the heat from the man-made weapon itself had created the storm. Nuclear weapons ended World War II, began the cold war and changed the nature of conflict forever. Mutually assured destruction became a threat and--for several decades--a tenet of foreign policy.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Atomic energy, the arms race, nuclear submarines, Three Mile Island, the space race, fallout shelters, Star Wars shield, Dr. Strangelove
RUNNER-UP
Transistors The scientists at Bell Labs, then AT&T's research arm, were trying to improve long-distance phone service by devising a replacement for the vacuum tube. What they created in 1947, a circuit made from semiconductor elements, laid the foundation for microchips.
ETC.
Instant photography Supersonic flight Microwave ovens Bar codes Silly Putty Slinky Tupperware Sneakers
'50s
THE BIG THING
Birth Control Pill The oral contraceptive, developed by Gregory Pincus, lowered the "whoops!" factor to less than 1%, making it, for a time, the most effective form of family planning short of surgical sterilization. With money raised by activists Margaret Sanger and Katherine McCormick, Pincus tested his theory that synthetic progesterone could stop a woman from ovulating (which it does, essentially by faking pregnancy). He conducted human trials in Puerto Rico in 1956; the FDA approved it in 1960. Today 60 million women are on it.
WHAT IT LED TO:
The sexual revolution, spontaneous sex, ERA, supermoms, Norplant, "abortion drugs," birth control patch, more agita for the Roman Catholic Church
RUNNER-UP
Integrated Circuits In 1958 Jack Kilby fashioned the first microchip out of a single slice of silicon (it had one transistor); in 1959 Robert Noyce figured out how to get all the electronics on a chip talking. The invention spawned Intel, along with a thriving computer industry.
ETC.
Disposable diapers Charge cards Transistor radios TV dinners Polio vaccine Artificial intelligence Sputnik Velcro
'60s
THE BIG THING
The Laser Long before the laser was invented, Albert Einstein reckoned that excited molecules hit by photons would produce an amplified signal. In 1960 Theodore Maiman built the first working laser (short for light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation), a coherent beam of electromagnetic energy produced by light waves traveling the same path. Today the devices are ubiquitous: guiding rockets for the military, cutting steel, unclogging arteries in the O.R.--and playing your favorite Radiohead CDs.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Bar-code scanners, ray guns, laser light shows, laser printers, Lasik eye surgery, holograms, effective tattoo removal
RUNNER-UP
Robots In 1960 General Motors was the first to put one on an assembly line; before long, robots would invade manufacturing, taking over tedious tasks and unleashing a generation of science-fiction authors who envisioned man's defeat at the hands of the machines.
ETC.
Valium Lava lamps Nondairy creamer Breast implants Pull-tab beverage cans Soft contacts Polaroids Astroturf
'70s
THE BIG THING
In Vitro Fertilization When Louise Brown was delivered in England on July 25, 1978, the test-tube-baby industry was born. Scientists had joined her parents' eggs and sperm in a Petri dish and then implanted the embryo in her mother's uterus. (Elizabeth Carr, above, was the U.S.'s first in vitro-fertilized baby.) Despite a dismal 15% success rate, the process remains the treatment of choice for infertile couples.
WHAT IT LED TO: Fertility drugs, fertility clinics, the 65-year-old mom, the McCaughey septuplets, egg donors, embryo rights, embryo custody battles
RUNNER-UP
Cell Phones Motorola's Martin Cooper made the first cellular call in April 1973 on a 28-oz. untethered telephone later dubbed the brick, right. Handsets slimmed down, networks proliferated (and went digital), and subscribers multiplied, producing legions of distracted drivers and rude restaurant companions.
ETC.
Angioplasty GPS Floppy discs Pong Liposuction The Concorde Rubik's Cube CT scans
'80s
THE BIG THING
The Personal Computer The PC brought a mind-blowing surge of processing power to corporate worker bees as well as to Mom, Dad and the kids at home. Whereas bulky mainframes took up whole rooms, PCs sat on a desk. In 1981 IBM introduced its first model, which ran a disc-operating system developed by Microsoft. Three years later, Apple unveiled the far friendlier Macintosh. The competition has spurred improvements, although it has also vexed consumers who just want a computer that works--and does everything.
WHAT IT LED TO:
Word processing, War Games, cubicle culture, geek chic, PowerPoint, Mine Sweeper, tech support
RUNNER-UP
Genetic Fingerprinting The ability to use DNA to make a positive ID gave the criminal justice system a major boost, led to countless arrests and convictions of those who would otherwise have gone free and helped exonerate the falsely accused. Alec Jeffreys developed the process in 1985. Three years later, it put its first perp in jail.
ETC.
NutraSweet RU 486 "abortion" pill Disposable cameras Fiber optics Stealth bomber Microsoft Windows CD-ROMs Prozac
'90s
THE BIG THING
World Wide Web The Internet had been around since the 1970s but wasn't ready for prime time. Only after software engineer Tim Berners-Lee created HTML code, URLs and the first browser did the Web debut in 1991. Before long, surfing was something you did indoors while basking in electroluminescent light. The Web changed the way we did everything--shop, date, invest, check the weather, get porn--and gave us control over the flow of information while compromising our privacy. For a time, an IPO craze minted millionaires--and brought us a very funny sock puppet.
WHAT IT LED TO:
The Drudge Report, bloggers, the Pamela Anderson-Tommy Lee sex video, identity theft, online dating, the eBay economy, Googling
RUNNER-UP
Cloning Scottish embryologist Ian Wilmut cultured an adult ewe's cells and implanted them in a surrogate, and on July 5, 1996, Dolly was born. Litters of cloned mice followed, and the ethical debate intensified.
ETC.
Skyphones Gene therapy Pentium processors High-definition TV Viagra Flavr Savr tomatoes Botox Hubble Space Telescope
NEXT?
Playing God Surely our growing knowledge of human genetics will lead to new treatments for disease and even to cures. But more controversial aims are in play. Scientists are close to screening human embryos for a wider range of congenital conditions; how long before we're selecting for intellect, optimism and ambition? Therapeutic cloning could yield versatile stem cells to replace diseased cells--if politics doesn't get in the way.
Smart Dust These computerized motes are still a bit bigger than dust--about the size of a matchbox--but the concept holds: scatter a bunch of these radio-equipped wireless sensors across a battlefield, and they could track troop movements; embed them in a road, and they could deliver a traffic report. They're already detecting climate conditions at a California vineyard and monitoring energy use in supermarkets.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell For carmakers, it's the ultimate green machine: a system that runs on hydrogen and oxygen and spouts only heat and water vapor. GM says it could start mass-producing fuel-cell cars by 2010. But makers of consumer electronics may beat them to the punch. In two years NEC plans to introduce a fuel-cell-powered laptop that runs 40 hours between charges--very handy in, say, a massive blackout. Portable fuel-cell power generators sell for a mere $5,995.
Space Tourism Two civilians have each paid $20 million to visit the International Space Station, courtesy of the Russians and booking agent Space Adventures, and a dozen more are in training. On deck: 10-minute thrill rides in suborbital flight.
Bioartificial Organs In tests, the bioartificial kidney has saved lives. A mix of living and manufactured parts (a cartridge full of tiny plastic fibers bearing thousands of working kidney cells), the device is a temporary fix for patients awaiting a transplant (the cells die after a few weeks). A bioartificial liver is also in the works. Other possibilities: a bioartificial heart, lung and pancreas.
With reporting by David Robinson