Then There Were 134

By Terry McCarthy, Sonja Steptoe and Karen Tumulty

It might have seemed that Arnold Schwarzenegger got an enormous boost over the weekend when one of his best-known Republican rivals dropped out of California's wild gubernatorial race. But by the time Bill Simon exited, his poll numbers registered as little more than an asterisk in the crowded field. "Everybody had been surprised by [his poor showing], including him," says a G.O.P. strategist. Democrats, meanwhile, appeared to be gaining as they coalesced around what is known as the "no-yes" approach: asking voters to cast a ballot against recalling Governor Gray Davis but in favor of Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante as his successor if Davis is ousted. It seems to be working--at least for Bustamante. In a Los Angeles Times poll released Sunday, bustamante had a 13-point lead over Schwarzenegger among likely voters asked whom they would vote for to replace Davis.

Team Schwarzenegger is hoping that other Republicans in the race--particularly State Senator Tom McClintock, around whom the most ardent conservatives have rallied--will follow Simon to the sidelines. But the actor's strategists know he must do more than winnow the field to draw voters. Men 35 and younger are known to turn out in force when it comes to films about gun-toting, back-from-the-future robots, but history shows that on Election Day they are more inclined to sit home with a video. Getting them off the couch to vote on Oct. 7 could be the key to a Schwarzenegger victory.

The election is so hard to predict that it's no wonder some powerful players are hedging their bets. Broadcasting tycoon A. Jerrold Perenchio, who was Davis' largest individual campaign contributor, has joined Schwarzenegger's team of economic advisers, according to the Sacramento Bee. Investment banker Warren Hellman, who is contributing to the antirecall effort, also turned up among Schwarzenegger's advisers. "I'm dead set against a recall," says Hellman, "but if it happens, I want to be supporting someone I'm enthusiastic about." By Terry McCarthy, Sonja Steptoe and Karen Tumulty