Light These

By Daniel Kadlec

Tax-exempt investors tend to be a conservative bunch. So they may be excused for choking on the sudden sickliness of so-called state tobacco bonds. These unusual securities, whose prices have bucked wildly, are a small part of the $1.8 trillion U.S. municipal-bond market. But they've infected other bonds, boosting volatility and hurting prices. Yet some bargains have emerged.

Don't get hung up on the unique problems of tobacco bonds, which are state-issued debt backed by future payments of tobacco companies as part of a landmark 1998 liability settlement. States including California and New York have issued some $18 billion of these bonds to get their mitts on the tobacco loot now rather than wait to collect it in dribs and drabs over the next few decades. The bonds have always offered a higher yield than similarly rated munis--today, about 5.5% vs. 4.1%--because no taxing authority stands behind them, only a handful of private companies that a lot of folks would like to see put out of business. In high-tax states like New York and California, many individuals bought tobacco bonds and are paying dearly for the extra yield.

The big trouble started in March, when an Illinois court left the Marlboro Man (Altria, formerly Philip Morris) gasping over the prospect of having to post a $12 billion bond before it could appeal an adverse verdict over its marketing of "light" cigarettes. Altria threatened Chapter 11, its corporate-bond ratings were slashed, and state-tobacco bonds reeled, losing 10% of their value. Virginia postponed a $767 million tobacco-bond sale--and that highlighted the real problem.

States are in terrible financial shape. Investors are worried--especially with tobacco-bond income imperiled--that states won't be able to service their other bonds. Meanwhile, the Bush Administration's push to cut taxes on stock dividends could make tax-free bonds less attractive. As a result, yields on the best-quality tax-free munis have reached a rare parity with those of taxable Treasury bonds. In both cases you can get about 4% on a 10-year issue. A T-bond would have to yield 5.7% to generate the same after-tax income as a 4% muni for anyone in the 30% tax bracket.

The upshot: if tax-free income is what you savor, this is a great time to buy munis. Altria is just blowing smoke about bankruptcy; indeed, at the urging of a large number of states, Illinois has dramatically reduced Altria's appeal bond so that it can keep making settlement payments. Even in bankruptcy, the payments would probably continue as an operating expense. And even in the unlikely event that the tax on stock dividends is erased, there will be no massive flight from munis toward stocks. The typical muni investor values stability above all.

The states' overall budget troubles are the biggest danger for muni investors, and ample reason to be very selective. No state has defaulted on its general-obligation bonds since the Great Depression, so stick with these "GOs" or with "essential service" bonds issued by water, sewer or even school authorities. Medium-term maturities of about 10 years are the bond market's sweet spot today; prices here are less vulnerable to rising interest rates--a certainty at some point--than are those of longer-term bonds.

For a portfolio of munis up to about $100,000, the most cost-effective route to safety and diversification is a well-run, low-cost mutual fund. Some good choices are in the box at left. For bigger portfolios, it pays to buy (and therefore control) your muni bonds directly. Your best bet is to work through a financial adviser.

Finally, a word on munis for the growing ranks of investors who must pay the hated alternative minimum tax (AMT): income from "private use" bonds, like those used to fund many stadiums and airports, becomes taxable under the AMT. Muni-bond funds will tell you their AMT exposure if you ask, and any good personal portfolio adviser should watch out for them as well.