Bush vs. Arafat

By Massimo Calabresi; Simon Robinson

Does President Bush have a follow-up plan for actually removing Yasser Arafat from power? Apparently not. In his Middle East speech last week, the President urged the Palestinians to replace their current leaders (read Arafat) with ones "not compromised by terror." Once that occurs, he said, the U.S. will recognize a Palestinian state and pressure Israel to do likewise. But some Administration officials admit there's no blueprint for moving Arafat along. Concedes a White House aide: "Some of these tactical aspects we are still working out."

There certainly is no consensus within the President's top circle of advisers. Hard-liners like Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld wanted Bush to push for Arafat's ouster. But Secretary of State Colin Powell has urged Bush to advocate political and economic reforms without demanding Arafat's removal. Powell, says a senior U.S. Middle East expert, suffered a "frustrating" defeat.

For now, Arafat remains popular among Palestinians. But there are some signs of discontent. Mohammed Dahlan, former head of security in Gaza, has been addressing crowds of as many as 2,000 in recent months. He talks of "mistakes of the intifadeh," according to Israeli intelligence, and is said to have backed a protest by Palestinian workers angry that the recent violence has cost them their jobs.

Another potential challenger to Arafat is Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, who is a founding member of Fatah, Arafat's political movement. Abu Mazen has been privately urging Arafat to adopt a more conciliatory line with the U.S. and has criticized Arafat's support of al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which has been behind many recent suicide bombings. "Abu Mazen is sick of Arafat," a senior Fatah official tells TIME. "He has lost hope of any progress." Abu Mazen visited Washington in early 2001 for prostate-cancer surgery and, while recovering, met with Powell at the State Department. One of the subjects discussed was Arafat's succession. When Arafat heard about the meeting, he was furious, according to the Fatah official, and froze Abu Mazen out. --By Massimo Calabresi and Simon Robinson