The Coming Job Boom

By Daniel Eisenberg With Reporting by Cathy Booth Thomas/Dallas, Unmesh Kher/New York, Sean Scully/Los Angeles, Maggie Sieger and Leslie Whitaker/Chicago, Daniel Terdiman/San Francisco, with other bureaus

At a time when the job market still seems bleak, the outlook for Alex and Cindi Ignatovsky, both 33, could not be much brighter. After trying out a number of different careers, the Aptos, Calif., couple have recently discovered their true callings. Alex, who had been a paralegal and had also done a brief stint as an insurance salesman, has just started working as a juvenile-probation officer, helping kids wend their way through the crowded criminal-justice system. Cindi, who previously was an editor and a graphic designer, is now busy finishing up an intensive, multiyear program to become an acupuncturist. In her view, as she puts it, "there's as much opportunity as I make of it."

She's right, about both her and her husband's prospects--but not just because they're passionate and adept at what they do. They have also, as it turns out, each chosen fields--in his case, law enforcement and social services, in hers, health care--that are feeling the first effects of the coming job boom. That's right. Even as thousands of Americans are still getting pink slips, powerful help is on the way. And it has more to do with demographics than economics. The oldest members of the huge baby-boom generation are now 56, and as they start retiring, job candidates with the right skills will be in hot demand. As Mitch Potter of human-resources consultant William M. Mercer says, "The dotcom bubble created a false talent crunch. The real one is coming."

In certain industries, especially those in which burnout and early retirement are common and demand for services is rising, the crunch has already arrived. As the population ages, hospitals can't find enough nurses or medical technicians. Drugstores are competing to hire pharmacists, bidding some beginners' salaries above $75,000. School districts and universities will need 2.2 million more teachers over the next decade, not to mention administrators and librarians, and are already avidly recruiting. Homeowners can't get their calls returned by skilled contractors, electricians or plumbers. Corporations are scooping up accountants and engineers. For job seekers who have the right skills or are willing to learn them, there are real opportunities in government, construction and technology.

To millions of laid-off workers still pounding the pavement, of course, this might seem like wishful thinking. While the economy grew a whopping 5.8% in the first quarter of 2002, the job market usually lags by at least a few months. To land a job, record numbers of workers are taking pay cuts or switching industries, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas; many others are starting their own small businesses. But as hard as it may be to believe, it should not be too long before employees are in the driver's seat. A wave of retirements whose full effect is only starting to be felt will soon ripple through the entire economy. And the savviest workers and employers are already preparing for it.

Though the average retirement age is creeping up--and a growing share of Americans, by choice or necessity, are planning to work at least part time well past 65--demographers say there still will not be enough qualified members of the next generation to pick up the slack. So with 76 million baby boomers heading toward retirement over the next three decades and only 46 million Gen Xers waiting in the wings, corporate America is facing a potentially mammoth talent crunch. Certainly, labor-saving technology and immigration may help fill the breach. Still, by 2010 there may be a shortage of 4 million to 6 million workers.

Not enough Americans are trained for these jobs. They lack everything from computer literacy and leadership to critical thinking and communication skills. The recent slump, though, may be helping narrow the skills gap in a surprising way. Although generous social-welfare systems in industrialized countries such as Germany and Britain make it easy for the laid off to wait around for a factory to reopen, Americans tend to take the initiative during a downturn, getting educated or trained for a better job and in the process adding to the country's stock of human capital. Applications to graduate programs in everything from law and business to education and engineering are up from last year by 30%-100%. That approach should pay off. Although 1.9 million Americans with a high school diploma or less got the ax from September 2000 to October 2001--a time when the economy was slumping--1.2 million people with college or vocational degrees were hired, according to the Employment Policy Foundation.

It isn't just the younger generation that's going back to school, either. Bruce LeBel, 59, a veteran aircraft mechanic who lost his job after Sept. 11, is learning how to service the computer networks that help run more and more factories and power plants. Many of his former colleagues "are afraid to try anything different. They want to stay with a dead horse," he says. "But the only thing that can save me is having a skill that's in demand." To help other job hunters follow LeBel's example, here's a guide to the best job opportunities today--and tomorrow.

A HEALTHY PROGNOSIS

If lately you have had to wait to fill a prescription or get your doctor on the phone, you know why no industry holds more promise than health care.

--CAREGIVERS Nurses and pharmacists aren't the only ones being snapped up by hospitals. All across the country, sonogram operators, who make a median salary of $42,000, and radiology technicians are being hired. The people who help patients get back on their feet are also hot properties. Over the next decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there will be 255,000 openings for all manner of therapists, including physical and respiratory therapists and speech pathologists.

--DRUGMAKERS Firms that dream up wonder drugs are in one of the few industries that have continued to hire in droves. Swiss-based Novartis AG, which has embarked on a major expansion in the U.S., hired more than 1,800 workers last year and plans to keep hiring at a brisk pace. That includes everyone from marketing and manufacturing staff to people in finance, human resources and, of course, research science. This array of jobs pays anywhere from $30,000 to $300,000 a year. Likewise, Abbott Laboratories hopes to fill 5,000 new positions this year, including posts for sales reps who can drive product launches.

--GENE HUNTERS The much hyped biotech industry is finally starting to deliver on its promise, with more small companies shifting from basic research to drug development. That means more jobs, from lab work to medical writing, are in the pipeline as well. Genentech, based in South San Francisco, Calif., is increasing its head count each year by 297, or about 6% annually, hiring everyone from Ph.D.s to community-college grads who can work in manufacturing. Just in the budding field of bioinformatics, in which specialists can make more than $100,000 a year using computers to plow through reams of genetic data, there will be an estimated 20,000 unfilled jobs by 2005. Chemists are also being wooed across industries.

UNCLE SAM WANTS YOU

Long before Sept. 11 ushered in a new era of respect for government, Washington was poised to enjoy an unlikely job boom. Almost half the Federal Government's 1.8 million workers will be eligible to retire within five years. From the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Park Service to the Commerce, Energy and State departments, agencies are bracing for a brain drain, especially at the managerial level. And these aren't your classic paper-pushing jobs--although many of those, as at the busy Social Security Administration, are also going begging.

--LAW ENFORCEMENT Organizations--from the FBI and the CIA to the Coast Guard and the Defense, Justice and State departments--are revving up their recruiting efforts, looking for everyone from computer programmers, budding young diplomats and spooks to lawyers and linguists. The Immigration and Naturalization Service wants to hire thousands of new border-patrol guards and immigration inspectors to process and keep better track of new arrivals to the country; these positions require just a high school diploma and, with overtime, can pay around $40,000 in the first year.

--BIG THINKERS To help assess the growing tide of innovations that washes across its desks, the Patent and Trademark Office is desperate to find more qualified engineers and intellectual-property lawyers. Other high-end specialists are needed, such as drug reviewers at the FDA; accountants and statisticians at the Labor and Treasury departments, the Internal Revenue Service and the Securities and Exchange Commission; and trade experts at Commerce.

GET YOUR HANDS DIRTY

In the dotcom mania of the '90s, it was easy to forget that skilled tradespeople can make good money.

--CONSTRUCTION A recent industry study showed that at least one-third of St. Louis' 80,000 construction workers are expected to retire in the next five years--a microcosm of the situation nationwide; the industry needs to attract 240,000 new workers each year, from project managers to iron workers, just to compensate for the exodus. The top tradespeople in their fields, such as plumbers, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, roofers and painters, can make upward of $100,000 a year.

--MANUFACTURING Even in this beleaguered sector, in which many firms have made huge layoffs, companies are having a hard time finding the right people. More than 80% of firms say they face a shortage of qualified machinists, craft workers and technicians, according to a recent survey by the National Association of Manufacturers. That deficit is likely to widen. Although manufacturing will not grow much overall during the next decade, a rapidly aging work force will create more than 2 million job openings--with many positions paying more than $50,000--for welders, tool- and diemakers, line managers and others.

--TECHNICIANS As machines keep getting more complex, with tiny microprocessors governing their every move, finding enough people to repair and maintain them is becoming harder. Heating and air-conditioning technicians are in high demand. Nationwide there are about 60,000 vacancies for car mechanics, who can earn anywhere from $30,000 to $100,000.

ENGINEERING THE FUTURE

Despite the layoffs from busted dotcoms, jobs will be abundant in other areas of technology. Computer storage, enterprise software and semiconductors are still growth areas. Analysts expect corporate information-technology spending to stabilize this year and rebound in 2003.

--ENGINEERS Over the past 15 years, the number of students graduating with a bachelor's degree in engineering dropped 50%, to 12,400. Companies like Texas Instruments are hiring electrical engineers for product-design, sales and marketing departments. Other engineers--software, mechanical, aerospace, civil and structural--are also hot properties.

--COMPUTER MONITORS Computer-related jobs will be among the fastest growing in the next decade. Leading the way will be those key employees who help large companies maintain their daunting tangles of technology, from system analysts and support specialists to database administrators.

THE DESK SET

Thousands of investment bankers, consultants and lawyers have become casualties of the latest round of corporate downsizing. But the long-range picture looks better. As baby boomers scale back their time at the office to concentrate on other activities, from golf to philanthropy, corporate America will be desperate to find qualified managers and executives as well as support staff, from administrative assistants to paralegals.

--FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING H&R Block has been busy hiring 1,200 financial advisers and marketing staff members as it broadens its tax-preparing business. Financial-services firms continue to look for financial planners and asset managers. Despite their role at Enron and in other corporate scandals this year, accounting and auditing are especially attractive fields, expected to grow nearly 20% in the next decade.

--ENERGY The oil, gas and utility sector is bringing on finance and marketing graduates to help navigate deregulation. Companies such as TXU, Exxon Mobil and Koch Industries are still hiring. A graying work force means the industry also needs to find a new generation of petroleum engineers, geologists and geophysicists.

To keep pace in today's fast-moving economy, job hunters must be, above all, flexible. Steve Reyna, 28, who four years ago went to work at TDIndustries, a Dallas-based mechanical contractor that specializes in air-conditioning and plumbing projects for high-tech companies, knows this better than most. After training as a sheet-metal technician, Reyna moved on to work in the so-called clean rooms of semiconductor companies, learning a little welding and plumbing along the way. Just one of more than 1,300 employees at TDIndustries who are rigorously cross-trained, Reyna is now ready to work "wherever they need me." If the number crunchers turn out to be right, that could soon mean just about everywhere.

--With reporting by Cathy Booth Thomas/Dallas, Unmesh Kher/New York, Sean Scully/Los Angeles, Maggie Sieger and Leslie Whitaker/Chicago, Daniel Terdiman/San Francisco, with other bureaus