After the ABM Treaty, More Trouble Ahead

By Massimo Calabresi

President Bush's announcement on Thursday that the U.S. will withdraw from the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty in six months caused surprisingly few ripples. But that may not last. Russian President Vladimir Putin's response was relatively mild, partly because the Administration had smoothed the way beforehand. Secretary of State Colin Powell informed Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov two weeks ago of the impending move. Powell then held a series of meetings designed to soften the blow by focusing attention on another deal that both sides committed to last month: mutual cuts in offensive nuclear weapons. Putin stressed Thursday that he wanted the deal in writing, "a legal seal on the achieved agreements on further radical, irreversible and verifiable cuts."

The U.S. is planning to sign the deal when Bush travels to Moscow in the spring, senior Administration officials say. But the Administration is preparing an important hedge in the agreement: the ceiling proposed on offensive missiles won't be binding. Hard-liners in the Administration want a free hand to rebuild their nuke stockpile if and when they please. "We don't want to be limited by treaty from going up," says a senior Administration official. The Russians apparently are still under the impression that the signed document will make the nuke cuts binding. "The Russians may think it will be," says the senior official, "but it won't." No telling whether the Administration can smooth that one over.

--By Massimo Calabresi