The Election Turf War

By Mitch Frank

Don't let all the blue on this map fool you: George W. Bush may have a nationwide lead, but he has not locked up the states that will decide the election. Bush is doing best in the West and the Deep South. But Gore has New York and California, which have three more electoral votes than all the Bush states west of the Mississippi. So the most important territory is the Midwest, where Bush's lead tends to fall within the margin of error. Bush is targeting several other states in the South and the Northwest that have voted for Clinton but have yet to embrace Gore. For Gore, winning the battleground states means solidifying his base--especially union voters considering Ralph Nader--and attracting moderates. Gore has a shot: some polls estimate as many as half the voters are undecided.

--By Mitch Frank

THE BIG BATTLEGROUND STATES

With 106 electoral votes, the Midwest is prized territory. The two campaigns have focused their ads, money and time on the region's moderate, working-class families.

OHIO Gore needs Cleveland's blue-collar families to offset rural conservatives in the Southwest who favor the G.O.P. But so far, Bush has an impressive 9-point lead statewide.

FLORIDA With its own Governor Bush, Florida would seem to be locked up. But seniors and young families are still up for grabs. Gore's pick of Lieberman may galvanize the state's Jews.

MICHIGAN Gore has struggled to cement labor's support here. The United Auto Workers met with Nader before finally endorsing Gore. That helped knock Nader down from 8% to 5%.

PENNSYLVANIA Bush leads here, holding strong support from men. Gore has Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and a slight edge with women. Nader slipped a point last month, down to 7%.

MISSOURI A bitter Senate fight here will bring out voters. Bush has a slight lead, but Gore has launched a flurry of new ads. Only once in the 20th century has Missouri voted for a presidential loser.

ILLINOIS Can Gore adviser Bill Daley help win the 60% of state voters who live in Chicagoland? Bush has only a scandal-tainted Governor George Ryan for help. But so far, Bush leads by 7.

WISCONSIN Long a liberal state, Wisconsin has moved to the middle. Bush has a slight lead so far. Nader is at 9 points, stealing 12% of self-described Democrats straight from Gore.

CLINTON WON THESE PLACES, BUT GORE HAS A FIGHT

These are smaller prizes, by and large, but they're up for grabs. Bush thinks "compassion" will work in the Northwest, while Gore tries to win back the Clinton South.

ARKANSAS Clinton's old home is far more Republican now. Seniors and blacks are behind Gore, but voters 44 and younger and in the conservative northwest corner of the state back Bush.

NEW JERSEY Clinton and Gore won this diverse, bellwether state by 18 points in '96, but Gore holds only a 4-point lead for now. Bush's "moderate" message could keep this state close.

GEORGIA Atlanta is solidly Democratic. The suburbs lean G.O.P. The rest is up for grabs. With Democratic former Governor Zell Miller running for Senate, Democratic turnout should be high.

WASHINGTON More conservative than in previous years, Washington is now a dead heat. Eco-friendly voters are wringing their hands over whether to support Gore or Nader.

MINNESOTA Once a proudly liberal state, this is Jesse Ventura country now. Locked in a dead heat, both campaigns will target the young Twin City suburbanites who elected "the Body."

LOUISIANA Louisiana gave Clinton and Gore solid victories. But Democrats here are conservative, and the oil-and-gas industry is hostile to Gore. Bush is currently well ahead.

KENTUCKY Gore's anticigarette and pro-environment stances hurt him in this tobacco and coal state. It led one Democratic Congressman to refuse to come to the convention in Los Angeles.

OREGON The last Republican to win here was Ronald Reagan, but so far Gore lags by 3 points. Bush has a slight edge with men, Gore with women. Oregon was Nader's best state in '96.

WEST VIRGINIA Despite a strong Democratic history, West Virginians are giving Bush an 8-point lead so far. The coal miners have not endorsed Gore, worried about his environmentalism.

NEW HAMPSHIRE Gore had a 12-point lead here five months ago. Now Bush is up 10 points. Still, the Texas Governor can't feel too comfortable after his primary loss to McCain.

TIME.com For an interactive, up-to-the-minute map of polls in key states, go to time.com/Campaign2000