Strait Talk

By Mark Thompson/Washington

War over Taiwan? For 50 years, Taipei and Beijing have conducted a symphony of sword rattling over the island. Conventional wisdom suggests China's giant army would steamroller Taiwan. But U.S. sources suggest a more nuanced view--one that may keep Beijing's sabers sheathed for a while. "I don't think there is a realistic likelihood that the P.R.C. would do something as extraordinary as invade Taiwan," says Navy Secretary Richard Danzig. "The cost would be way too high for them." Here's why:

LANDLOCKED China's 2.5 million-strong army looks terrifying--it's six times as large as Taiwan's--but it would have a hard time getting to Taiwan. China doesn't have enough ships to move its troops to the island, and it lacks a "blue-water navy" to protect its naval assets. EDGE Taiwan

TOP GUN Most of China's warplanes are old Soviet knockoffs. While Beijing has several dozen modern Su-27 fighters, they could be overwhelmed by Taiwan's Western-supplied and well-armed air force. And Taiwanese planes have a key advantage: they would be guided by U.S.-built E-2 radar planes. EDGE Taiwan

ROCKET SCIENCE In the future, missiles loom as the key Chinese weapon for intimidating, and perhaps attacking, Taiwan. That's why Taiwan is eager to develop, with U.S. help, a missile shield. Such a system, however, would use much of the same difficult and costly technology that doomed the U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative in the 1980s. Perfecting it now will be daunting--if not impossible. EDGE China, which could try to use the threat of missile attack to lure Taiwan back to the motherland

--By Mark Thompson/Washington