Taiwan Takes a Stand

By Terry McCarthy/Taipei

The future won over the past, and hope overcame fear in Taiwan Saturday as voters chose opposition candidate Chen Shui-bian as their next President--despite warnings from Beijing that his election could mean war. Chen's win, which ended 55 years of Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) rule on the island, sent tremors around Asia in anticipation of Beijing's reaction, even as the streets of Taipei turned into a party. Only 14 years ago, Chen, a pro-democracy lawyer, had been languishing in jail on charges of libeling a high-ranking KMT member. "This is the greatest victory of Taiwan's democracy movement," Chen told TIME in his office on the day of the victory.

It was always going to be a close race. But because of a Taiwanese rule that prohibits polling a full week before an election, no one could firmly predict how the voting would turn out. When unofficial polls showed Chen nudging ahead, Beijing added to the uncertainty by trying to browbeat the electorate into voting against him. But when all the ballots were counted, Chen had notched just over 39% of the votes. His closest rival, the independent candidate James Soong, had nearly 37%, while the KMT candidate, Vice President Lien Chan, slumped with a 23% showing.

After a week of wild electioneering--and equally wild slips and slides in Taipei's stock market--the final tally provided an emotional release. "I am overwhelmed by the victory," said Hsiao Li-hsin, 30, a legislative assistant who stood among the mob that crowded the streets outside Chen's party headquarters. "I'm going to stay here all night and all tomorrow morning." Police had closed the streets to traffic for blocks around the victory party, which filled the air with confetti, firecrackers and the occasional outburst of song. "I'm going to sleep well for the first time in 50 years," said Shih Shia-shu, 70, a pensioner wearing a Chen hat.

But as Chen's supporters frolicked, others began to worry about the future under the new President, whose Democratic Progressive Party (D.P.P.) has a history of espousing Taiwanese independence. China has long threatened invasion if Taiwan declares independence, and it waged a strong war of words against Chen's candidacy. This culminated last Wednesday in an attack by Zhu Rongji, the reform-minded Premier, normally a moderate regarding Taiwan. Zhu warned voters in Taiwan against "impulse" voting: "Otherwise I'm afraid you won't get another opportunity to regret." He said Chinese were prepared to "shed blood" to protect their territory, and dismissed Western military analysts who say China is still years away from having the ability to invade Taiwan successfully (see box).

Warning lights began flashing across Asia and as far away as Washington. If Zhu the moderate was talking war, what were the hawks in the People's Liberation Army planning? U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen, touring Asia, said Beijing's "threat of the use of force is counterproductive." Later, in Washington, the State Department summoned China's ambassador, Li Zhaoxing, to protest China's threats and ask Beijing to tone down its rhetoric.

In fact, Beijing's crude attempt to influence the elections seems to have backfired, just as its tactic of shooting missiles into the Taiwan Strait backfired during the last elections in 1996. "I am not afraid of China," said office secretary Lee Fan-mei, 35, who voted for Chen. "We need to assert ourselves as Taiwan and as the Taiwanese people."

It wasn't just national pride that drove voters to Chen. The KMT's record in ruling Taiwan has been worsening in recent years. In particular, the party's corruption--long a kind of open secret among the Taiwanese--had finally reached such proportions that voters felt it was getting in the way of governing. Lien's poor showing at the polls suggests that the KMT's "black gold," as the system of patronage and payoffs was known, had lost its sheen. Chen, 49, a father of two, emerged from a poor family in southwestern Taiwan to study law, a skill he used to defend pro-democracy activists during the country's martial-law period. In 1994 he became mayor of Taipei, the D.P.P.'s highest public post at the time, before making his presidential bid this year. He has paid for his opposition status. Not only has he served time in jail, but his wife Wu Shu-chen was hit by a truck and paralyzed in 1985--an event both of them believe was politically motivated.

Even though Chen may make Beijing nervous, he has backed off the much stronger, pro-independence language he has used in the past. Throughout the campaign he said repeatedly that he would not declare independence unless China attacked Taiwan. After the election he told TIME he would immediately set up a nonpartisan board of experts "to deal with the very difficult issue of cross-strait relations," and added, "Passions must subside." He is planning to visit the U.S. and Japan to discuss the issue, and says he also hopes "to make a goodwill visit to China" before his inauguration in May. But for Beijing, the worry isn't just that Chen will declare an independent state but that he will slowly begin to walk the island away from a path that could lead to eventual reunification with the mainland. Even subtle gestures--like suggesting that the two entities ought to establish "state-to-state" contacts as equals--have been enough to make China unfurl its well-worn threats.

Much of the short-term outcome depends on what Chen does next--and how much cooperation he can win from Taiwan's KMT-dominated legislature. Some analysts see dangerous times ahead. "The view may prevail [in Beijing] that Taiwanese politics have passed the point of no return, leaving no hope for peaceful resolution and making eventual military confrontation inevitable," says Chu Yun-han, professor of political science at National Taiwan University. In fact, a Beijing scholar suggested last week that a Chen victory could bring an invasion within a matter of hours. While that was clearly an overstatement, it hinted at the depth of passion that China's nationalists feel about Taiwan.

Whether or not Taiwan has reached the point of no return, its vibrant elections showed how far behind it has left China's hidebound one-party system. Chen won because he offered voters real change--and change is something Beijing has big problems adapting to. Chen's election has put Beijing on the defensive. How it responds to the new President has suddenly become the most burning question in Asia.

--With reporting by Macabe Keliher and Don Shapiro/Taipei

With reporting by Macabe Keliher and Don Shapiro/Taipei