Monday, Feb. 14, 2000

McCain's Indie Factor

By Mitch Frank

Independent voters go for John McCain, so he may enjoy stretches of the road ahead. More than half the state primaries through March 14 allow independents to vote one way or another.

WIDE-OPEN PRIMARIES Georgia, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont (3/7), Utah (3/10), Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas (3/14)

ANALYSIS Voters in most of these states don't register their party affiliation, and they can vote in whichever primary they want. Rhode Island and Massachusetts allow independents to vote for either party's contender, then redeclare their indie status as they leave the polls.

SORT-OF-OPEN PRIMARIES South Carolina (2/19), Michigan (2/22), Virginia (2/29), Maryland (3/7)

ANALYSIS South Carolina (where a third of voters are indies), Michigan and Virginia allow anyone to vote in their G.O.P. primaries, while Democrats in these states opt to hold caucuses later for the party faithful. Nothing prevents Democrats from participating in both contests. Maryland independents can vote only in the G.O.P. primary.

CLOSED PRIMARIES Delaware (2/8), Arizona (2/22), Connecticut, Maine, New York (3/7), Colorado (3/10), Florida, Louisiana, Oklahoma (3/14)

ANALYSIS McCain's decision to bypass Delaware could be wise. Its G.O.P. primary, like Arizona's, is for Republicans only. Only three of the March 7 primaries are closed to independents, but George W. Bush can take comfort the week after. Half of the South's contests that day are closed. Texas' is not.

THE EXCEPTION California (3/7)

ANALYSIS Independent voters here might just as well throw their vote away. The primary is ostensibly open, but when it comes to awarding delegates, Democrats and Republicans alike plan to count only the votes of registered party members. The overall vote results are thus a nonbinding "beauty contest."

--By Mitch Frank