Off To The Races

By Mitch Frank

MCCAIN has the bio of a hero, the support of independents and campaign funds of $1.6 million

THE OTHERS With not much cash and single-digit poll ratings, Hatch, Bauer and Keyes are struggling for recognition at free-for-all debates, waiting for a mistake by the front runners

FORBES has support from some social conservatives and the money to campaign as long as he wants to

BUSH has $67 million, the party establishment, the stature of his dad, the popularity of his mom and a network of G.O.P. Governors

GORE has Air Force Two, seven years of on-the-job training, faithful Democratic troops and a new set of boxing gloves

BRADLEY has a resume that includes a Rhodes scholarship, a decade as the New York Knicks' star forward, 18 years in the Senate. Plus he's raised $28 million

Republican contests in BLUE Democratic contests in RED

[Republican] IOWA Jan. 24

Bush has to win in Iowa by a big enough margin to quiet doubters. He has the party machinery and leads Forbes 60 points to 10. For Forbes it's do-or-die; if he doesn't pull an upset, he's not going much further. He's spent millions here and organized every county, field and barn. McCain isn't even campaigning, and has denounced the state's beloved ethanol subsidies, yet he's gained ground on Forbes. All Bauer and Keyes have to do to finish well is come in third.

[Democratic] IOWA Jan. 24

Bradley has been lavishing money and time in Iowa, cutting Gore's lead in the polls from 28 points to 13. But Bradley's forces are downplaying their chances so that, in the expectations game, a close loss will become a psychological win. Gore's counterspin is that Bradley has raised the stakes, so nothing less than outright victory will do. Organization makes the difference here, and Gore still has all the advantages: unions, endorsements, the party machinery.

[Republican] N.H. Feb. 1

McCain has raised expectations high enough that he must win in New Hampshire to keep the race alive. A Bush victory would calm the G.O.P. establishment and could finish McCain. Bush is fighting to regain his lead, giving voters the personal attention they expect. A lackluster showing for Forbes would relegate him to the back of the pack.

[Democratic] N.H. Feb. 1

Bradley is 3 points ahead in New Hampshire, and a win combined with a close second in Iowa, could seriously undermine Gore's chances. But a Gore win would be nearly fatal to Bradley. Either way, though, both campaigns have until March to regroup. The wild card is independent voters. Will they be flocking to Bradley or McCain?

[Republican] DEL. Feb. 8

Forbes may have his best luck in Delaware. He's done well in the past, and McCain and Bush have yet to show up much. Of course, the state has fewer delegates than Puerto Rico.

[Republican] S.C. Feb. 19

McCain has admitted he must win South Carolina to stay in the race through March. Polls show him gaining a modest 6 points, but Bush is still ahead by 33. McCain is counting on veterans and independents. They make up one-third of all voters and can cast ballots for any party in this open primary. The G.O.P. chairman has ordered the printing of enough ballots to serve twice the votes cast in 1996. But Bush has built the first of his so-called firewalls here.

[Republican] ARIZ. MICH. Feb. 22

After fighting hard for South Carolina, McCain gets to return home. But he faces a strong challenge from Bush, who has Arizona's Governor on his side and is running dead even. If Bush can come in a close second or even win, he will have embarrassed McCain at home. Michigan Governor John Engler, an F.O.W. (Friend of W.), has promised he will deliver his state to Bush. McCain has just begun to campaign here, yet polls show him cutting Bush's lead from 64 points to 25 in just one month. Independent voters, who can vote in the Michigan primary, may help him close the gap even more.

[Republican] N.D. VA. Feb. 29

If Bush holds on to the lead through the first month of contests, this will be the last primary day where he will have to worry about McCain. And the Senator has yet to begin organizing in North Dakota. In Virginia he barely got on the ballot.

SUPER TUESDAY GENERAL: CALIF., CONN., GA., MAINE, MD., MASS., MO., N.Y., OHIO, R.I., VT., WASH.--DEMOCRATS ONLY: HAWAII, IDAHO, N.D.

[Democratic] March 7

A month after New Hampshire, Gore and Bradley fight for 15 states in one shot. The New England states, along with Maryland and Bradley's home state of Missouri should all lean his way. And New York could be his biggest prize; he and Gore are currently running even there, though Gore is mobilizing minorities and unions with some success. Ohio would also be a valuable swing state for either to win. Gore is not finished if he loses New York and even Ohio. Early signs point his capturing the biggest state: California. He holds a 27-point lead and is working hard for the Hispanic vote. Gore also probably wins Georgia. If Gore wins New York too, Bradley may be done.

[Republican] March 7

Bush is the only candidate with the organization and cash to campaign aggressively in every one of these states. But if McCain has managed to upset Bush through February, he will have enough steam to give his campaign a life of its own. The odds are against him: in New York, where arcane qualifying rules favor Establishment candidates, McCain will be lucky to get on more than half the ballots. He is suing the party to let him on.

[Democratic] COLO. UTAH ARIZ. MINN. NEV. MICH. March 10-12

The candidates will have their hands full down South, so only Colorado and Michigan are likely to get much attention from them.

SOUTHERN TUESDAY GENERAL: FLA., LA., MISS., TEXAS, OKLA., TENN.

[Democratic] March 14

The South is Gore's safety net, where blacks are expected to mobilize behind him. Bradley's only good shot is in Florida, with its large population of transplanted New Yorkers. Both Dems want to establish themselves here, since it will be crucial in the fall.

[Republican] March 14

Texas belong to Bush, Florida to little brother Jeb. Dixie should be good to him.

Meanwhile in the pits...

Buchanan and Trump will be sitting out the regular primaries, but they'll be busy securing their own Reform Party nomination. They have to campaign for it in the 21 states where the party is on the fall ballot, and they have to lobby to put the party on the ballot in the remaining 29. The ballot rules vary from state to state. Reformers will hold a primary in which anyone can vote. But at the August convention, a vote by two-thirds of the delegates can propose an eleventh-hour candidate, effectively nullifying all of the above. It should be fun.

Written by Mitch Frank