Why the Case Might Help More Than Hurt

By Massimo Calabresi

While the families said they were fighting only over what was best for Elian, everyone else was really sparring about U.S. relations with its longtime nemesis in Havana. In the past year Washington has edged steadily toward warmer ties to Castro's Cuba--which not all are happy about.

On paper the changes are minor, such as allowing more people-to-people contacts. But at the State Department, in the business community and even in Congress, sentiment is growing to abandon the 40-year-old embargo that has failed to dislodge Castro. Farmers, businessmen and tourists are clamoring for greater access to the island, as other countries usurp a natural U.S. market. In a TIME/CNN poll last week, 53% of Americans surveyed said the U.S. should open diplomatic relations with Cuba.

Even as Elian fury peaked on both sides, diplomacy between Washington and Havana was getting chummier. Castro stoked Cubans' anger over Elian for domestic benefit and diplomatic leverage, but he was quietly acting more neighborly. When Cuban immigrants held at a Louisiana prison took hostages just before Christmas, Castro agreed to take the prisoners back after their surrender. When a former South Vietnamese fighter pilot flew over Havana early this month to drop anti-Castro leaflets, Castro's air force didn't blow him out of the sky.

Perhaps as a result, Cuban officials say privately that the Clinton Administration appears to be enforcing immigration accords more stringently. Those require that the U.S. send back any Cuban rafter intercepted at sea. But Washington has indulged--and Havana has railed at--a loophole known as the "wet feet, dry feet" rule, which allows any Cuban who makes it onto U.S. soil to claim asylum. That has only encouraged illegal balseros--rafters like Elian and his mother--to attempt the voyage across the straits. U.S. immigration officials in Miami tell TIME that "wet feet, dry feet" may come under serious review.

Some Cuba watchers even see the Elian case as a potential springboard for a broader diplomatic opening. The Clinton Administration may feel it can afford to improve ties now that the exile community in Miami has squandered some of its clout on the Elian drama. If George W. Bush, the brother of Florida Governor Jeb Bush, emerges as the Republican presidential nominee, some Democrats figure they probably can't win Florida anyway. So why not take advantage of the moment to build a few bridges to Havana?

--By Massimo Calabresi. With reporting by Dolly Mascarenas/Havana and Tim Padgett/Miami

With reporting by Dolly Mascarenas/Havana and Tim Padgett/Miami