The Y2K Bug: Do We Still Have To Worry?

By Chris Taylor

The trouble starts at midnight in the Marshall Islands, where a Navy fighter pilot loses control of his computer-assisted jet and plunges to his death. In Scandinavia a nuclear power plant suffers a sudden, deadly meltdown. And at midnight in Times Square in New York City celebration turns to riot when the lights flicker and die.

This is New Year's Eve 1999, as foreseen by Y2K--a truly painful NBC film that last weekend became a late-breaking entry for the title of Worst TV Movie of the Millennium, despite some substantial competition. For what the movie lacks in budget and coherent plot, it makes up for in family-size doses of alarmism.

The filmmakers can get away with this because of our enduring millennial uneasiness. We still can't be sure what will happen to our computer-assisted jets, nuclear power plants and electricity-supply lines at the moment '99 rolls over into '00. A flurry of bug- fixing and Y2K-readiness reports over the past year seems to have lulled most of us into a what-me-worry? coma, but it hasn't made the problem go away. There are untold millions of embedded chips and creaky old computer systems that will continue to keep track of the date in terms of two-digit years, and no one can predict with certainty how many of our silicon friends will freak out when both digits suddenly come up empty.

Happily, not many geeks in the know are betting on a real-life replay of NBC's nightmare scenario. Talk to the software engineers, the ones who have been wading knee-deep in the raw computer code for some time now, and you'll find they are hardly planning to head for the hills. "I have no stockpile of water at home and no generator," says Microsoft's Y2K director Don Jones, "and I have a nine-month-old son. My wife says, 'Shouldn't we at least do a little something?'" Only as much as you'd prepare for a three-day blizzard, goes the prevailing advice.

Washington, however, is erring a little more on the side of caution. The government has built and unveiled last week a $50 million command center to monitor potential Y2K problems. The State Department has offered its diplomats in former Russian republics a ticket home for the duration. The Federal Reserve is printing up an extra $50 billion in currency. This, you might conclude, is going to be one heck of a blizzard.

What's got the Fed in such a tizzy? Partly, of course, it's the fear of being caught napping; if there's one thing the 20th century has taught us, it's not to display hubris in the face of an apparently diminishing threat. But mostly Washington is worried--again, not for the first time this century--about a domino effect.

Because even if the U.S. does turn out to be more or less Y2K O.K., other parts of the world may be less fortunate. "There's going to be some massive issues in other countries," says Steve Brown, CIO of Micron, a major PC manufacturer in Idaho. "Mexico's got problems. I also think Brazil's got problems, and Eastern Europe has got big problems."

They're not the only ones. Russia, Ukraine, Egypt, India and Indonesia are, a CIA expert warns, "especially vulnerable due to their poor Y2K preparation." Nigeria recently reported that up to 80% of its computers--and, more important, 69 of its 80 banks--are not Y2K compliant.

And China? Don't ask. Although significant progress has been made this year, the country's Y2K working group reports nagging trouble with a lack of funds and an even more severe lack of understanding. Thousands of state-owned firms are still fumbling for solutions. The State Department also warns Beijing-bound travelers to be wary of possible blackouts and food shortages.

But even abroad, it's not Hollywood-friendly riots or atomic disasters that we should be fearing. It's economic trouble. Even if one of these countries suffers a Y2K-related banking shutdown, it could cause ripples in the global pool. And that's why Y2K command-center staff members won't be popping Champagne corks if midnight comes and goes without incident. There will be at least another week of active duty on the financial watch ahead of them. The date many Y2K watchers are waiting for is not Saturday, Jan. 1, but Monday, Jan. 3, when the world's trading floors and banks reopen for business.

So if the ball drops in Times Square and the lights are still on when it hits the bottom, you can breathe a little easier. Just don't exhale completely. Give it a couple more days; then, if all goes well, you can curl up on the sofa and laugh yourself silly at a tape of Y2K--assuming your VCR still works, of course.

--With reporting by Jaime Florcruz/Beijing, David S. Jackson/Los Angeles and Simon Robinson/Nairobi

With reporting by Jaime Florcruz/Beijing, David S. Jackson/Los Angeles and Simon Robinson/Nairobi