Six Billion...And Counting

On Oct. 12, give or take a few days, the world's population reaches an alarming milestone. But the growth rate has begun to ease, and next century's rise will not be as steep as modern-day Malthusians once predicted

The worst crunch is coming to the poorest regions

Population density Darker colors represent more densely populated areas of the globe, as measured in 1 km squares Population per sq km

Growth is slowing...

As recently as 1987, the head count rose by 1.7%, or 86 million. In 1999 the increase is down to 1.3%, or 78 million. Experts think the population may stabilize at 10 billion after 2200 if the deceleration continues

...for diverse reasons...

Increased education and use of family planning have pushed down fertility rates all over the globe. On the negative side, mortality has been driven up by the spread of AIDS, especially in Africa

...but threats remain

If poor countries develop their economies in the same wasteful way industrial nations have, population growth will put an increasing burden on food and water supplies and the habitat of endangered species In the future, a new world order looms

Population will keep soaring in less developed countries, North America's will plateau, and Europe's will start to fall

Most populous countries, 1999

1. China 1,267 million 2. India 998 million 3. U.S. 276 million 4. Indonesia 209 million 5. Brazil 168 million 6. Pakistan 152 million 7. Russia 147 million 8. Bangladesh 127 million 9. Japan 127 million 10. Nigeria 109 million

Most populous countries, 2050

1. India 1,529 million 2. China 1,478 million 3. U.S. 349 million 4. Pakistan 345 million 5. Indonesia 312 million 6. Nigeria 244 million 7. Brazil 244 million 8. Bangladesh 212 million 9. Ethiopia 169 million 10. Congo 160 million

1999 Asia 61% Africa 13% Europe 12% S. America 9% N. America 5%

2050 (proj.) Asia 60% Africa 20% S. America 9% Europe 7% N. America 4%

Sources: Keith Clarke and Ann Ricchiazzi (NCGIA), Jason Simpson (ADL)/UC at Santa Barbara: United Nations Population Fund

Megacities will multiply

The number of cities with 10 million or more people is expected to keep surging

1960 2 1999 17 2015 (proj.) 26