The Unforeseen Effect of Abortion

By Stacy Perman

Never mind all those mayors who brag about the results of their tough-on-crime initiatives. A pair of respected researchers has come up with a startling alternative explanation for the recent drop in crime--those most likely to commit it were never born.

The legalization of abortion in the early '70s prevented a significant number of would-be criminals from coming of age in the 1990s, according to a controversial study, "Legalized Abortion and Crime," by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and Stanford University law professor John Donohue III. They suggest that the rise in abortions after the 1973 Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade may explain as much as half the overall decrease in crime from 1991 to 1997. Says Donohue: "In 1981 a third of all pregnancies ended in abortion. That social phenomenon will have a large repercussion."

Fewer offenses, Donohue and Levitt point out, are being perpetrated by people ages 24 and younger--those born after abortion was legalized. Increased abortions, they add, reduced the number of "unwanted" children born to teenage, unmarried and poor women--children considered most likely to commit crimes as adults.

Some criminologists, including Alfred Blumstein, director of the National Consortium on Violence Research, say Donohue and Levitt don't adequately factor in other variables, including the strong economy and crime-prevention measures. But if their research is proved correct, the duo say, crime stats should slide further over the next 20 years.

--By Stacy Perman