Danube Demagogue

By Bruce W. Nelan

The hottest ticket in Belgrade is for a movie called Knife, a dramatic slice of the Yugoslav national theme--ethnic anguish. Serbs are packing theaters to see it for another reason as well. It is based on a novel by Vuk Draskovic, who for years has been dramatic himself in public life as a journalist, dissident and rival to President Slobodan Milosevic. The film's plot concerns a young man brought up by a Muslim woman. Muslim boy meets Serbian girl; boy loses girl because both families object. Later, he discovers he is a Serb. The message, says Draskovic: "All of us are not who we think we are."

The obvious next question is who Draskovic thinks he is. It is not an easy one to answer. If any opposition leader has the skills and the organization to replace Milosevic, he has. A gifted orator with demagogic instincts, he heads the influential Serbian Renewal Movement. At the same time, Draskovic may be more problem than solution. He has been on all sides of key issues, both inside the government and out. He can't quite decide whether Milosevic can be ousted by a mass movement or should be enticed to resign.

There is no doubt, however, about Draskovic's courage. He led antigovernment demonstrations in Belgrade in 1991. In 1993, out in the streets again to fight Milosevic's "Nazi fascist combination," he was arrested, beaten and jailed for 50 days. Since then, Draskovic has played a different game, shifting in and out of opposition. Just before NATO bombs began falling, he was appointed Deputy Prime Minister of Yugoslavia and became a ubiquitous apologist for his country. But in April, after criticizing Milosevic's policies in Kosovo, he was fired.

Although he made a stab at reviving the mass demonstrations of yesteryear, Draskovic puts little faith in them now. First, most rallies and marches have gathered fewer people than organizers hoped. Second, even if the turnouts were huge, marchers in the streets would be unlikely to force Milosevic out as long as the police and military remain loyal to him. That's what makes Draskovic potentially such an important player: if public pressure isn't going to push Milosevic out, it may take a palace coup. Draskovic's history suggests he could be the one holding the knife.

His weapon of choice these days is a proposal for a transitional government in which a new Prime Minister of Yugoslavia would come from the democratic ruling party in Montenegro and the Prime Minister of Serbia from an opposition party (guess who?). "That's the end of Milosevic," he says. One of the many flaws in this plan is Montenegro's determination not to become more closely involved with Serbia as long as Milosevic is still around. Perhaps the best alternative, however, would be a united front among opposition parties. But Draskovic's ego and ambition won't let him join in such togetherness: he has resolutely refused to ally himself with any of the other opposition parties. One of Belgrade's film critics says Knife is about reconciliation, "a hand in the air, trying to shake some other hand." But if that's the real message of the movie, its author is unwilling to hear it.

--By Bruce W. Nelan. Reported by Gillian Sandford/Belgrade

With reporting by Gillian Sandford/Belgrade