The Hot Spot

By Romesh Ratnesar

Cozying up to Taiwan is a Republican tradition as cherished as tax cuts. In 1980 Ronald Reagan defied his advisers and pledged to re-establish official relations with Taipei. Facing defeat in 1992, George Bush authorized the sale of 150 F-16s to Taiwan. Even Bob Dole talked about building a missile-defense shield over the Pacific to protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression.

Given that history, it's no surprise that conservative candidate Gary Bauer has already declared his support for Taiwanese independence. But don't expect the same from George W. Bush. The Texas Governor has stayed clear of dramatic policy shifts on Taiwan, and last week he issued a statement reiterating his adherence to the U.S.'s one-China formula. "This isn't the kind of policy you can change on the stump," says an aide. That advice was evidently making the rounds. Republican John McCain and Democrats Al Gore and Bill Bradley remained committed to a Beijing-focused policy.

China, however, won't likely disappear as a flash point. Bush plans to slide-tackle the Administration for placing relations with Beijing ahead of those with the U.S.'s Asian allies. Last week Condoleezza Rice, Bush's top foreign policy adviser, took a swing at Clinton for bypassing Tokyo en route to a summit in Beijing last summer: "You wouldn't see the Governor go to China for nine days and not go to Japan and South Korea." It was an opening shot in what promises to be a sustained and challenging salvo for Gore.

--By Romesh Ratnesar