Specter of Revolution

By NISID HAJARI

In his 32 years as the undisputed ruler of Indonesia, Suharto did not suppress memory as much as wield it like a weapon. His "New Order," he declared, had brought stability to an archipelago that was less a nation than a factory for political chaos, full of secessionists, radical Muslims, communists and renegade soldiers fomenting catastrophe. But in a swirl of the very disorder he claimed to have dispelled, Suharto was forced last May to relinquish power to a trusted disciple, B.J. Habibie. Even that move could not stem the unrest, and after six months of political tension and economic hardship, chaos has returned to the world's fifth most populous country. Indonesia's woes have been a driving force behind Asia's financial crisis, and the new instability could trigger global market shudders.

In Jakarta throughout last week, student-led marchers clashed with riot troops assigned to protect a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly, the nation's highest constitutional body. On Friday night the run-ins exploded into a full-fledged battle, with soldiers chasing and shooting protesters with rubber bullets at close range. By dawn at least 14 civilians had been killed; more than 200 were reported wounded. At the Assembly building, sealed off by loops of razor wire and thousands of soldiers and police, legislators passed 12 toothless decrees that only glancingly acknowledged the students' demands to exorcise all memory of Suharto's dictatorial New Order.

That increasingly bitter divide between the government and the people will not be easily healed. Habibie has survived on the instability of the forces jockeying for a place in the new Indonesia--pro-democracy leaders, Muslim activists, students and the armed forces. Few of those factions are likely to come to his aid if events spiral out of control: by Saturday evening, with protests reported in at least five other cities, that seemed entirely possible. The question may now be whether Habibie will be forced to give way to martial law and a military junta led by armed-forces chief General Wiranto or to a more progressive coalition of opposition figures, like Megawati Sukarnoputri, Abdurrahman Wahid and Amien Rais. What's certain is that the contest over reform has been radicalized. "The idea of revolutionary change has spread among the students," says a Western diplomat. "Now they shout revolusi rather than reformasi."

Authorities have only themselves to blame for that transformation. Determined to prevent any disruption of the parliamentary session, military brass turned Jakarta into an armed camp. Troops blocked off key intersections as well as the Parliament building--ground zero for the protests that helped topple Suharto in May. Warships and even a submarine prowled inexplicably in the harbor. More ominously, an additional 125,000 civilian "volunteers"--thugs hired mostly from Indonesia's fiery Muslim youth groups--fanned out across the city to intimidate the opposition.

The viciousness of the military response hardened attitudes. "Damn this country!" muttered a student as he tied a wet towel around his face to ward off the tear gas. One distraught resident asked bitterly, "If the military is so brave, why don't they fight other countries--why do they attack the people?" And while the police and the army were booed and pelted with debris, the crowd cheered the arrival of the marines--who had fraternized with protesters who forced out Suharto in May--thus prompting wild visions of civil war. On Saturday, as thousands of protesters headed for the Assembly building, at least 80 uniformed marines marched with them. Rumors that the military had turned upon itself proved premature, but uncertainty about the loyalties of various factions remained.

Habibie seems unprepared to confront the chaos. In a halting speech in the Assembly, he regretted the deaths of student "victims of the reform process." He later ordered the military to take "firm" action against the protesters. Even if he survives till next year's elections, the ruling party will probably drop him as its presidential candidate, if he doesn't resign first.

As poverty and despair spread, the ranks of those with nothing to lose will probably swell to dangerous proportions. "People are playing parlor games here in Jakarta. No one is really speaking for the people out there," says the Western diplomat. "This is going to be the Jacobin revolution that we haven't seen yet. This is the dangerous part. It's going to be bloody."

--Reported by David Liebhold, Zamira Loebis and Lisa Rose Weaver/Jakarta

With reporting by David Liebhold, Zamira Loebis and Lisa Rose Weaver/Jakarta