AN UNHEALTHY IMPULSE

By PAUL QUINN-JUDGE/MOSCOW

Boris Yeltsin's crisis of health is setting off an equally severe crisis of confidence among his closest advisers. After a nasty brush with pneumonia and a reported relapse into depression, the chances that the 66-year-old President can serve out the remainder of his four-year term have begun to look increasingly uncertain. And the more doubtful his survival becomes, the more furiously members of Yeltsin's inner circle feel they must scramble for a solution to keep themselves in power. The biggest problem they face is that if Yeltsin were to pass from the scene tomorrow, not a single member of his team is believed to be capable of winning the general election that must, according to Russia's 1993 constitution, be held within three months. By the brutal logic that prevails in Kremlin corridors, that leaves only one obvious solution: change the constitution.

There are several ways to do this, and last week Yeltsin advisers began launching trial balloons. The first was proposed on Itogi, the ponderous Sunday-night television program that is often believed to reflect the views of Yeltsin's chief of staff, Anatoli Chubais. Itogi reported that Kremlin insiders were discussing the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin to serve as Acting President not simply for three months but for the almost four years left in Yeltsin's term. That might give the stodgy PM time to develop into a marketable candidate. A second idea floating around parliament would involve scrapping an interim general election and allowing a special assembly to choose a successor. Rivals Chernomyrdin and Communist Party leader Gennadi Zyuganov each believe it could work in his favor. A third proposal, aired by Vyacheslav Kostikov, Yeltsin's former press secretary, would delegate part of the President's powers to a council of several senior advisers until the election in 2000.

The scrambling reflects the Yeltsin team's awareness that they are still deeply unpopular with Russian voters, who, if given the chance, would happily put someone else in charge. That person would probably be Alexander Lebed, the former general whose successful peace negotiations in Chechnya last year have made him the most popular--and electable--figure in the country. If Lebed ascended to the presidency, he would inherit one of the most authoritarian constitutions of any state in the world that aspires to democracy. This is deeply worrisome, and not just to Yeltsin's advisers, because Russia would then be at the mercy of Lebed's brutal reflexes and his untested political instincts.

Late last week both Chernomyrdin and Chubais put out the word that the President is on the mend. As if to reinforce that perception, Yeltsin announced on Friday that he was opposed to any "hasty" changes in the constitution. He also made a couple of appearances at the Kremlin but they served only to underscore the harsh fact that Yeltsin's primary task these days is simply to keep himself upright and ticking. If he can manage that, the Kremlin may be able to stave off an early election and avoid succumbing to the impulse to tamper with an already flawed constitution.

--By Paul Quinn-Judge/Moscow