REBELS IN THE KINGDOM

By Howard Chua-Eoan

The kingdom of Saudi Arabia often solves its problems by bringing them to a place unofficially called "chop-chop square." Crowds gather at the site next to a mosque in the center of the capital of Riyadh, and they watch as an executioner swings his sword and cuts off the heads of public enemies. That was the punishment meted out to four young men earlier this year after they confessed to the November 1995 bombing of an American-run training center in downtown Riyadh, an attack that killed seven people including five U.S. advisers. Chop-chop square is also likely to be the destination of some if not all of the 40 suspects the Saudis now have in custody for last June's Khobar Towers bombing near Dhahran, a blast that took the lives of 19 U.S. airmen. Chop-chop makes fast work of sticky problems.

Or maybe not. Saudi Arabia's problems are increasingly like the many-headed hydra of myth: slice off a head, others grow in its place. Worse, the Saudi government may be facing two hydras. The four men executed in the first bombing were members of the Sunni Muslim majority of the country. The 40 in custody for the Dhahran attack belong to the kingdom's Shi'ite minority. And the Shi'ite suspects bring with them the specter of a greater menace--Iran, the center of Shi'ism that lies about 160 miles across the gulf. Indeed, the Saudis believe Tehran is the true perpetrator of the Dhahran incident. They have turned over evidence to Washington, which is now considering the investigation's credibility and weighing the cost of retaliating against the Iranians. For the U.S. the choices are not good. Addicted to Saudi oil, it cannot ignore the conservative ruling family, yet cannot comfortably become Riyadh's enforcer. A White House decision is expected early next year.

Over the past 15 years, the Saudis contend there has been a pattern of Iranian subversion against Saudi Arabia. The tactics have ranged from bringing agents in on rubber boats to smuggling them across the Yemeni border. Riyadh says some infiltrators are employed in or near Saudi military installations; others have allegedly agitated radical elements of the Shi'ite community.

The evidence of an Iranian role in the Dhahran bombing is largely circumstantial, but Riyadh believes it is highly persuasive. Most of the 40 Shi'ites arrested on suspicion of involvement in the attack have visited Iran. Some have been in Iranian-supported Hizballah training camps in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Many traveled between Syria, Iran and the Bekaa on false passports. With the help of FBI forensics experts, the explosive for the blast has been traced to the Lebanese Hizballah. The alleged Shi'ite driver of the truck used in the bombing is in custody. The bombmaker, a Lebanese Shi'ite linked to the Hizballah in Lebanon, has been identified and is believed to be in Iran. So is the leader of the Saudi Hizballah, the secret organization the Saudis uncovered after the Dhahran bombing. The Saudis believe all this points to Tehran. (They also suspect that rogue elements of Syria's security apparatus, on Iran's payroll, may be involved.)

Now Riyadh wants a quick response. Having shared the fruits of their investigation with FBI Director Louis Freeh, the Saudis hope to influence the Clinton Administration in selecting an appropriate and relatively immediate punishment. Washington is prepared to believe Tehran is involved but wants to see solid evidence. If a link is demonstrated, U.S. policymakers will have to come up with an effective riposte. A U.S. attack on Iran would make martyrs of the victims. An economic embargo against Tehran would be ineffective because the Europeans and the Japanese would not support it. Any other military attack, say on Iran's submarine and naval bases, may simply draw Iranian fire to Saudi targets across the gulf. A covert campaign against Iran's terror network could escalate terrorist activity around the world.

Meantime, the Saudi government has been busy trying to snuff out any violent dissent among the Shi'ite minority (3 million out of the kingdom's 19 million citizens). Along with hundreds of Sunnis, several hundred Saudi Shi'ites have been detained in the past five months, say local leaders in the oil-rich Eastern Province, where most of the indigenous Shi'ites live. Even as he sits beneath a framed photograph of Iran's late Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini, Sheik Abdul Hamid Khuniz Katti, a senior Islamic judge in the Eastern Province, claims, "The Shi'ites in the Kingdom are not enemies of the government, in the open or in their hearts. And we don't ask other people to work against it either." However, discrimination against Shi'ites is on the rise. "We are fifth-class citizens," says Wadia, a Shi'ite employee of Aramco, the giant Saudi oil company. In 1980, many were caught up in the fervor that followed the ascendancy of Khomeini in Iran. But a swift and terrible response by Riyadh silenced that rebellion and gives any would-be revolutionaries qualms to this day. The recent crackdown that yielded the 40 suspects may have gutted the so-called Saudi Hizballah, which had an estimated 500 members.

Any U.S. military response against Iran that is clearly elicited by the Saudi government will do little for the popularity of the 5,000 American troops in the kingdom. Already, many Saudis believe American troops act as the palace guard of the repressively autocratic Saud family, headed by ailing King Fahd and his half-brother Crown Prince Addullah. For fundamentalists, the U.S. is to Saudi Arabia what the Soviet Union was to Afghanistan: an infidel occupation force propping up a regime that persecutes true Muslims.

The regime's harshness restrains most dissidents, but two turned up surreptitiously to talk to TIME's Scott MacLeod in Riyadh. Both unhesitatingly accused their government of repression and corruption. Both also denounced the presence of the American military personnel in the kingdom as a desecration of Islam's holiest places--Mecca and Medina. The two dissidents say activity by moderate reformers has been paralyzed by the clampdown that followed the two bombings. "The iron fist is working," says one. But even as he abhors violence and terrorism, he adds, "in the long run [repression] will be counterproductive. Eventually the passive opposition will make the quantum leap to being an active opposition."

Some Saudi dissidents view the recent bombings as signals that violent jihadis--those who fight holy wars--are seizing the ascendancy from Islamic moderates who advocate political reform. "After the Dhahran bombing, there was jubilation," says Saad Fagih, a Sunni exile leader in London. "Each of these acts is a kind of recruitment for this violent trend. It says, 'See? We are doing something.'" And in a country where even politically moderate Saudis proudly call themselves fundamentalists, the fundamentalist dissidents among the majority Sunni could be the greatest threat to the throne.

One of the four Sunnis executed for the Riyadh bombing was Khalid Said, 24. He had grown his beard in the Islamic way and cut his white cotton robe at calf length to symbolize the modesty of the Prophet Muhammad. Like 10,000 other young Saudis, he had signed up for Afghanistan and the holy war against the atheistic Soviets that was vigorously supported by the pious Saudi government. For Said, Afghanistan was akin to attending a university for terrorism and extremism. He learned to use a rifle and to prime explosives. He met militant Muslim activists from throughout the Middle East, listening to them preach revolution against corrupt rulers who collaborated with the decadent and immoral West. After returning to the kingdom, Said followed the diatribes of Saudi exiles, including Osama bin Laden, a millionaire stripped of citizenship for denouncing King Fahd and demanding the expulsion of U.S. troops. Soon the thoughts of Said and his comrades turned to rebellion.

His execution has not ended those thoughts. Watchers in Washington insist they do not believe Saudi Arabia is ripe for a takeover by Islamist holy warriors. But some analysts fear the Saudi rulers might have only a few years to find ways to begin reforming their absolute monarchy.

--Reported by Dean Fischer/Washington and Scott MacLeod/Riyadh

With reporting by DEAN FISCHER/WASHINGTON AND SCOTT MACLEOD/RIYADH