THE RULES FROM 1996

By Margaret Carlson/Washington

Out go the lights on the '96 campaign, and it's time to ask what we've learned. The voters couldn't have learned a lot, unless they were unaware that education is good and drugs are bad. Future candidates, however, will take away meaning. For instance: Don't discuss entitlements in the heat of a campaign. It's like putting metal in a microwave. Small fires break out, and dousing is not only exhausting but may also elicit promises that cannot be kept and make serious reform even more difficult. This is why Washington invents commissions.

By all means, smile. The candidate sporting a silly grin beats the one wearing a scowl. Yes, Richard Nixon glided to a dark victory; but there's an exception to every rule. Consider Jimmy Carter after he discovered malaise. Consider George Bush after the economy slipped. Consider Bob Dole. And, by the way, it is the economy, stupid. People vote their ATM cards and money-market accounts. Other lessons, for good or for bad, peculiar to this campaign:

Find a cartoon character. Happily, by 1996, the caricature of 1994, the Angry White Male, had gone on Prozac. Unhappily, he was replaced by the ubiquitous Soccer Mom, who was treated even more simplistically. After all, no one followed the A.W.M. to the grocery store to watch him buy his six-pack. But pundits rummaged around in the S.M.'s sock drawer for clues to how she would vote and wondered whether her choice of oversized minivans was a sign of male envy, like those huge shoulder pads in the power suit of the '80s.

Character has lost its attraction as an issue now that it no longer means sex. Once the press and the candidates realized that harping on sexual indiscretions ran the risk of Mutual Assured Destruction, the character issue was reduced to the impossible--and tedious--task of weighing one man's soul against another's. There was a brief respite provided by Dick Morris, whose idea of triangulating involved toes. But otherwise, nothing. Sex may finally be out until someone can show a connection between a model sex life--Nixon, Carter--and a successful presidency.

Primogeniture must go. To paraphrase Bob Dole: Wake up, Republicans, and join the rush to meritocracy. To make room for younger, stronger candidates without dissing your elder statesmen, consider something like the Oscars' Irving Thalberg Lifetime Achievement Award. Snag some headline entertainer like Jay Leno sufficient to attract network coverage, and air the same hagiographic film that would otherwise be shown at the convention. Better that the candidate end his career in prime time, droning on about his second-grade teacher, than at sparsely attended airport rallies, shouting epithets into the wind.

Money can't buy you love. Thanks for this lesson go to Senator Phil Gramm, who announced before the first voting that he had won the money primary with his $20 million and so everyone should get out of his way. At the straw poll in Florida, he had the best barbecue and the best band, spending $76,000 on "event expenses." About $4,000 a month went to a "crowd builder." Not since John Connolly spent about $13 million and won only one delegate has money done less.

Money can buy you love. Both candidates believed in spend now, pay the FEC fine later. By the time "fugitive DNC fund raiser" worked its way into the conversation, Clinton had a double-digit lead and promised to do something about the problem--later. Fortunately for Clinton, Dole had already blocked campaign-finance reform and stuffed his pockets. (Ever hear of the sugar-growing Cuban immigrant contributor or the $6 million fine for a Republican with a money-laundering operation in Hong Kong?) So only Perot could benefit from the scandal.

Keep it simple, but not too simple. Steve Forbes was put on the political map by his flat tax. He was taken off by it too. Filing on a postcard lost its allure once the middle class realized the 36% bracket would benefit first and most and, in the meantime, it would be goodbye home-mortgage deduction.

You can be too good to be President (see Senator Richard Lugar). You can also be too bad to be President, and as a consequence, have the first real scare in your congressional race in years (see Congressman "B-1 Bob" Dornan). And you can be too phony to be President (see Lamar! in the shirt playing the piano).

Your enemies are as important as your friends. Clinton's enemies: Joe Camel, the NRA, despoilers of the Grand Canyon. Dole's enemies: teachers, the N.A.A.C.P., Katie Couric, minimum-wage workers. And with friends like Newt, Dole couldn't really afford enemies. All those double-date press conferences during the budget negotiations looked like a buddy movie with Newt the star and Dole the sidekick. If Newt were really Dole's friend, he wouldn't be running around the country swinging a plastic bucket to symbolize all the money the revolution saved on congressional ice deliveries while his standard-bearer is trying to make the country forget there ever was a revolution.

Hire the most amoral, faithless, money-grubbing, shameless philanderer you can find. Dick Morris brought family values to the debate, moved Clinton to the mushy middle and acted out his boss's worst proclivities so that Clinton didn't have to. But exercise extreme caution when trying this at home--particularly if there are photographs (see Roger Stone, the Republican political consultant).

Small is beautiful. The presidency is a big thing. But in the era of downsized government, little things are fertile terrain for a feel-your-pain incumbent. And what bigger pain than raising a teenager in a vulgar world--thus, the V-chip, school uniforms and curfews. Compassion legislation: it feels so good, and it's oh so cheap.

Negative ads, yes. Negative attacks, only with caution. Personal attacks work when delivered with an aw-shucks attitude or praeteritio, as Dole practiced it in the first debate: "I've never discussed Whitewater, as I've told you personally. I'm not discussing Whitewater now." And then he went on to press Clinton on the Whitewater pardons. Dole delivered his broadsides with a hatchet and a scowl; the other guy with a stiletto and a smile.

Charisma is no substitute for conviction. America loves an Odd Couple, if their most profound disagreement is over how often to vacuum: twice a day or never. But Bob Dole and Jack Kemp are no Felix and Oscar. They differ on fundamental matters like immigration and affirmative action. Big-tentism run amuck, the photo-op vice presidency played well at the convention. By October it was clear the marriage could not be saved, even for the sake of California's 54 electoral votes. Never wed someone with whom you already have irreconcilable differences.

You can't compete with tragedy. A President acting in his capacity as Minister-in-Chief during traumas like the anniversary of the Oklahoma bombing, the fatal crash of Commerce Secretary Ron Brown's plane, the Olympic bombing and the TWA explosion, leaves no air time for the opposition. And just when it looked like Dole would get a bump out of the convention, he got hit by Edouard, Fran and Hortense and the President viewing the damage from Chopper One.

Don't quit your day job. You need a job to get a job. And you shouldn't pretend you were nothing more than a simple man from Russell, Kansas, for the past 35 years. Prospective employers don't look kindly on gaps in your resume. In the process of disavowing his presence in the belly of the beast, Dole also denied his legacy of passing moderate, bipartisan legislation, a record of real accomplishment.

Beware of novelists with speeches. Author Mark Helprin put words in Dole's mouth that had no business being there, and the only person to benefit was Helprin. He had the simple man from Russell describing "the heart of cities" looking from space "like strings of sparkling diamonds," and alluding to Antaeus, the giant in Greek mythology whose strength was replenished when he touched the ground. Then Dole was trapped by that bridge metaphor. It was hardly out of Dole's mouth before Clinton made it a two-way span, with himself poised at the last exit before the 21st century. Dole meanwhile was left behind in a horse and buggy on a rickety wooden model. Most people just wanted to make a U-turn, get off and take the tunnel.

Never annoy a billionaire. Here's the deal, see? It was clear Perot wasn't going to get into the debates and if he had, he would have been an equal-opportunity destroyer. What a waste for Dole to be the one to block it. After that, Perot would have to be crazy to entertain Dole's proposal that he drop out of the race, which may be why Dole gave it a whirl. It played out badly for Dole when he sent a mere campaign functionary and a leak allowed Perot to garner more press attention than he had since he started. What a dang fool idea. The weird and goofy billionaire even got to call Dole weird and goofy. Like a possum calling a poodle ugly.

An unpopular ballot proposition can be helped by a popular candidate, but an unpopular candidate cannot ride a popular proposition. Last week, on his swing through California, Dole embraced as his own the popular Proposition 209, which would roll back affirmative action. The result was to depress 209 briefly and leave Dole lagging in the polls.

If polling is good, focus groups are better. They're cheaper, they're faster, they're simpler. Forget that they are made up of the kind of people willing to make 50 bucks by sitting for a couple of hours in a stifling room drinking burned coffee; politicians are slavishly devoted to them. Dole got his cockeyed idea that people would rather leave their children with him than with Bill Clinton from a focus group. But the user addicted to the practice is Clinton (a la Morris), who tested every subject save whether a switch from a Big Mac to an Arch Deluxe would attract your more mature voter. In the next race, consultants will be looking for volunteers willing to have electrodes permanently implanted for minute-to-minute reactions to consultants' ideas.

Perhaps each new campaign just seems to be the worst when you're actually living through it. The best thing to do about the rules this campaign yielded will be to break them next time around.