WILL TEXAS PULL A HOLDUP?

By Karen Tumulty/Washington

Think you can't wait till Nov. 6 for the end of all the whiny negative ads, yawner debates and sloshing special-interest money? If you live in Dallas or Houston, tough luck. Things will only get worse after the election, as a handful of congressional races proceed into a political version of sudden-death overtime. Texas has been forced to stage its own set of December runoffs that could conceivably leave the rest of the nation wondering, for a full five weeks after the election, who will control the House.

This year's presidential contest may be losing its suspense, but the battle for the House of Representatives has rarely been such a nail biter. Analysts now say Bill Clinton's comeback and Newt Gingrich's blunders have given the Democrats at least an even chance of picking up the 19 seats they need for a majority. But they probably cannot count on getting more than a few to spare beyond that. Whichever party wins the House may find itself with the narrowest margin in decades.

And that's why Texas could be critical. Political pros expect as many as six House races to remain undecided on the morning after the election, thanks to a federal panel's 11th-hour verdict that three districts in the state had been improperly drawn. The August court ruling redrew the lines in 13 districts, throwing out the spring primary results. In those districts, candidates now must win more than 50% of the vote on Nov. 5 against every qualified opponent of all parties, or be forced into a runoff Dec. 10.

The ruling invited a mob of contenders, credible and otherwise, to hop back into the race. And this was bad news for Democrats in an increasingly Republican state. Ken Bentsen, nephew of the state's most revered former Senator, has problems enough with the fact that his Houston district, marginally Democratic when he won it in 1992, tilted slightly Republican under the court-ordered redesign. To avoid a runoff, he must win a majority of the votes next month against no fewer than 10 opponents, ranging from a refinery worker backed by the Socialist Workers Party to a district judge favored by the Christian Right.

Democrats like Bentsen have another problem. Special elections, and particularly one in the Christmas season of a year when many voters are disconnected from the campaign, usually favor the superior organizational skills of Republicans. "We'll have to hire Greyhound buses to get people to the polls," sighs Democrat Tony Proffitt, a Texas political operative.

Money to do that will be easy to come by for both sides, however, if the fate of the House still hangs in the balance. The Federal Election Commission has indicated that big donors who gave the maximum before the court ruling can start all over again for the runoffs. And every sort of special interest can be expected to descend on Dallas and Houston, airlifting in bales of contributions. "The amount of money that's going to be dumped into that state after the election will be awesome," says Elizabeth Wilner, who follows House races for the Cook Political Report. No doubt the next President will consider taking up temporary residence in the state, if only to help guarantee he'll end up with a Congress he can work with. As for the nation's hottest political gunslingers, here's some advice: book your hotel reservations now.

--By Karen Tumulty/Washington. With reporting by S.C. Gwynne and Hilary Hylton/Austin

With reporting by S.C. GWYNNE AND HILARY HYLTON/AUSTIN