WHAT DOLE MUST SAY

By Michael Kramer

This is it, Bob Dole, your final chance to move from loser to contender. The stakes couldn't be higher. Nothing else has ignited your campaign. Follow your script this week: Get tanned, get rested, get ready. And take heart. Large swings are possible. Exceed the low expectations for you this Sunday in Hartford, Connecticut, and you just might begin to roll. For the country, a lofty, substantive discussion would be great. But we're dealing with reality here. To win, you'll have to use every tactic available, even the blunt ones. So, stripped of any pretensions, here are some tips for the battle against Bill Clinton:

THE OPPORTUNITY. Republicans lose elections when they're perceived as scary, and Clinton has defined you as insensitive and out of touch. To shed that perception, to communicate that you won't destroy Medicare, for example, your own life's story is your best weapon. Reprise your appreciation for the good government does. A twofer is possible here. Your life is a compelling tale; telling it can convey compassion and locate you in the political center. When Clinton hits you for having voted against Medicare, say something like this: "I wouldn't be here today if government hospitals hadn't saved my life after I was wounded in Italy during World War II. No one who went through what I did would ever cause pain to others. No one, when I'm President, will ever be denied the medical care they need." You can't win the minidebate over Medicare, but you can calm fears that you're a bad guy.

Use this approach as a model. How you answer questions is more important than what you say substantively. Statistics are forgotten. Stance matters. Think of it this way: people applaud when Clinton calls for kids to wear uniforms in school; they're appalled when Pat Buchanan says it. Clinton's suggestion is viewed as common-sense toughness; Buchanan's as an authoritarian intrusion. Preconceived notions govern responses unless you work to change them. So far, almost everything about your campaigning style has been negative. You must seem optimistic. Simply saying you are when your demeanor signals pessimism gets you nowhere.

THE ECONOMY AND TAXES. Support for your 15% tax-cut plan has declined since you announced it. Worse, in Clinton's skillful hands your career-long insistence on cutting the deficit before cutting taxes guarantees further erosion as you press your proposal. Don't get flustered when the President trots out your old quotes. Try deflection. Use your critique of the economy. Clinton will have the better numbers because the economy is growing right now, but anxiety continues. Push that button. Voters worry about the cost of college, about home prices and the problem of caring for elderly parents. Close the circle: state your case that Clinton is for Big Government, which means spending big money. Use some examples of foolish spending and offer some supportable examples of places you'd cut. If you do, your 15% tax-cut plan can appear more coherent. Use Reagan's old line, "The best way to keep government officials from spending our money is not to give it to them in the first place."

LIBERALISM. It's in disrepute. Far more voters identify themselves as conservatives. You're on the right side of this ideological divide. Make it work for you. You have already begun your "Clinton is really a liberal" attack on the stump, and the latest polls suggest that it's working. Some of your advisers disagree, but you're running out of options, so keep it up. Repetition works. The liberal tag can substitute for frontally attacking the President's character, which can be seen as meanspirited.

The key is to draw a portrait of an unacceptable future if Clinton is re-elected. That future, as you describe it, should remind voters that Clinton endorsed one of history's largest tax increases and that he favored a large government role in the nation's health-care system. Label that failed attempt as "nationalizing" health care--the closest you can come to calling Clinton a socialist. Whatever people think of the President's tacking to accommodate the polls, a large majority are certain that Mrs. Clinton is an old-fashioned liberal. So recall what she said at a Democratic fund-raiser last spring (no matter that her aides insist she was speaking in jest). "Give Bill a second term, and I will be turned loose to do what we really want to do."

CRIME AND DRUGS. The crime numbers are down. Ignore them. It's still a problem. Repeat your call for prisoners to work 40 hours a week to help compensate their victims--and then move quickly to the drug epidemic. Recall Clinton saying that if he had to do it over again, he'd inhale. And before he can say he was only joking, say it for him, "That's the problem, Mr. President. You have the bully pulpit, and you joke about drugs." Don't forget to quote Democrats like Representative Charles Rangel, who has said, "I've been in Congress for over two decades and I've never seen a President who cares less about this issue." Clinton will slam your early opposition to the drug czar's office. Rebut by quoting Clinton's own drug czar, General McCaffrey, who has said drug use is up because "we've taken our eye off the ball."

ABORTION. Your pro-life stance is largely responsible for your huge gender gap. Concerns among women can be eased by how you answer the inevitable attack. Try something like this that telegraphs compassion without abandoning your position: "My daughter disagrees with me about abortion. I understand how she and millions of others feel. This issue has split our nation, and we have to find ways to bring us together rather than divide us." It's not much--but it's not a muddle, which almost all of your responses to the abortion question have been.

EDUCATION. You're pro-choice on schools; you want parents to have vouchers to select the best possible public or private education. Voters agree--and Clinton is locked in position with the teachers unions, who are anti-choice. Hit this issue hard. It defines the difference you want to accentuate: Clinton is against letting people decide what's right for them.

TOBACCO. You can be foolish sometimes, which is exactly what you should say. Admit your error--and don't worry--you'll still carry North Carolina. Say that of course you don't want people to smoke.

TERM LIMITS. They're popular, but Clinton opposes them. Reiterate your support as another way of painting Clinton as favoring Big status-quo Government.

ONE TERM. Forget the idea that you pledge to serve only a single term. Most will receive that promise as the gimmick it is--and offering it will subliminally highlight your age. If you must emphasize seriousness of purpose, relive your resignation from the Senate. Say it proves you believe that some things are more important than seeking and holding office.

IN CLOSING. Summations are not the time for new arguments. Clinton will portray himself as the brake against you and Gingrich. Strike again at his closet liberalism. A person without a moral compass can be depicted as likely to stray from the sensible center, which is where the votes are and where you desperately need to be.

For continuous campaign coverage, see the Time/CNN Website at AllPolitics.com