UNHEALTHY PROGNOSIS

By PAUL QUINN-JUDGE/MOSCOW

With any luck, advisers to Russian President Boris Yeltsin stoically insist, the political paralysis that has gripped Russia since his re-election last July will be over by Christmas: Yeltsin will be back at work after a successful heart-bypass operation, and the country will resume its shamble toward what ordinary Russians wistfully call political "normality." Few believe this will happen, though. Most people, including presidential intimates and senior government officials, suspect that Yeltsin is seriously ill, will require much more than a bypass and may not survive. Last week his prospective surgeon, Renat Akchurin, revealed in press interviews that Yeltsin may have suffered another heart attack during his campaign, making any treatment all the more complicated. For planning purposes, one senior official said last week, "we have to assume there's a fifty-fifty chance" that Yeltsin will either die or be permanently incapacitated in the next few months.

This is not a good time for Russia to be without a leader. There is a continuing feeling that the country has not yet turned the corner: as an in-house briefing document for the political leadership recently warned, "Russia faces a difficult autumn and winter." Discontent with the government's failure to pay back wages grows. Last week defense workers picketed in Moscow to demand months of back pay and did so with the blessing of Defense Minister Igor Rodionov.

The current political vacuum, however, is of Yeltsin's own making and reflects his philosophy of power. "Boris Yeltsin never really fully trusts anyone," said an official who has watched him closely for years. "He is very adroit at manipulating the friendships and animosities of those around him." Yeltsin's distrust of others and his gift for manipulation found its expression in the 1993 constitution. Drawn up at the height of Yeltsin's confrontation with the legislature, the constitution gave the President broad and vaguely defined prerogatives. The aim was to ensure that he, and only he, controlled all the levers of power.

It worked too well. Today, with the President hospitalized for ever lengthening preoperative tests, power is divided three ways: the presidential administration, headed by the young, ambitious and abrasive Anatoli Chubais; Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin; and national security chief Alexander Lebed. Lebed and Chernomyrdin have presidential ambitions. Chubais, whose role in the privatization of Russian industry made him deeply unpopular, has no hope of winning the presidency but would clearly like to be Prime Minister in the post-Yeltsin era. No single member of the triad can claim supremacy over the others, and none trusts his two colleagues. Watching, and ready to join in when the opportunity arises, are two more potential contenders. Communist leader Gennadi Zyuganov would welcome a second crack at the presidency; meanwhile, Chernomyrdin and other senior figures are certain that Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov has presidential ambitions.

If elections are called before Christmas, no one doubts that Lebed, 46, would win by a landslide. At a time of political stagnation and feebleness, Lebed's successful peace negotiations in Chechnya have given him an aura of dynamism. Phenomenally popular among the public, deeply disliked by the governing elite, Lebed has to all intents and purposes already launched his presidential campaign. But he has handicaps--a scant political base and even less financial support. And his unpredictable, at times imperious ways make it difficult for him to keep the few allies he has.

After the presidential elections, Lebed lobbied publicly, and successfully, for General Rodionov to be appointed Defense Minister. But sources close to the Kremlin tell TIME that when Lebed recently tried to dictate to Rodionov a list of high-level personnel changes in the ministry, "Rodionov told him what to do with his list." Lebed's opponents in the political establishment are hoping that time will erode his lead. If the Chechnya peace agreement unravels, or Yeltsin recovers, Lebed's premature election campaign will look both indelicate and unwise. But in either case, Lebed might well walk out of the government, claiming to be the victim of jealous and corrupt government leaders. This is not a reassuring prospect for his many enemies. The last person to do this, in the late 1980s, was Yeltsin.

In the long run, if there is a long run, Lebed could face a serious challenge from the Prime Minister. Chernomyrdin, 58, received a very restrained vote of confidence from Yeltsin last week when, after two weeks of hesitation, the Kremlin announced he would indeed act as President during the President's incapacitation. But if Yeltsin has his way, Chernomyrdin will have little time to project himself to the public as a steady, reassuring leader. He will assume presidential powers when Yeltsin goes into the operating room and surrender them when the anesthetic wears off. Chernomyrdin has other problems. The most immediate of them is that he has not yet assembled a campaign team: frustrated aides say he seems terrified of appearing disloyal to Yeltsin. Although this is understandable, as Yeltsin's blessing could be vital, Chernomyrdin needs all the lead time he can get. Aides say it could take a year for their man to become a real contender for the presidency. He does have lots of money, however, thanks to his continuing connection with Gazprom, the giant oil-and-gas company that he once headed and in which he reportedly has a substantial stake.

Another politician preparing for the long haul is Luzhkov, 60. Yeltsin supporters say with grudging admiration that Luzhkov has already assembled an excellent public relations team. He is establishing alliances with regional leaders, speaking out on national issues and creating a powerful base for himself. Sources close to Chernomyrdin say Luzhkov is also trying to cut away at the Prime Minister's war chest by supporting moves to break Gazprom's oil-and-gas monopoly. Luzhkov's motives, a Chernomyrdin aide said last week, have little to do with devotion to free-market capitalism.

That leaves Chubais, 41, the head of the presidential administration, a sprawling bureaucratic empire--its in-house phone book is 230 pages long--that sometimes oversees and sometimes duplicates the work of government. Since making a major contribution to Yeltsin's re-election victory, Chubais has become a key political figure, combining in his person what were until recently two key roles--head of the administration and senior aide to the President. His relations with Luzhkov are by his own admission "complex"--the two men have in fact been bitterly and publicly critical of each other. He has clearly been trying recently to clip Chernomyrdin's wings. Yet both men hope for his future support. For the time being, the power struggle among the President's men is taking place in the shadows. Most of the would-be contenders deny indignantly any thought of succeeding Yeltsin. But the operation is looming--his doctors are expected to name a date on Sept. 25 and are warning that the President is facing a "big and serious" operation. Depending on the outcome, the struggle will either flare up into the open or abruptly subside, until the next crisis.