SADDAM'S SWIFT SWORD

By George M. Taber

Some 40,000 of Saddam Hussein's best-trained and most loyal soldiers took up positions late last week 12 miles south of the city of Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan and the center of a conflict between rival Kurd factions. And then, despite warnings from Washington, Saddam's forces rolled north toward Erbil. After heavy artillery pounded the city, the Iraqis quickly took control on Saturday. The Iraqi offensive was Saddam's boldest move since the end of the Gulf War five years ago, and set the stage for a new test of wills between Washington and Baghdad.

The northern section of Iraq has been off limits to Saddam's forces since shortly after the end of the Persian Gulf War. That was when the U.S. and its allies established an enclave where the 4 million Kurds would be protected from Saddam. The Kurds rebelled against Baghdad at the end of the war, hoping the moment was ripe for them to set up an independent country. Iraqi forces were on their way to crushing the rebellion when the Western powers drew a line just south of Erbil and told Saddam not to cross it.

Under the umbrella of Western protection, two rival Kurd factions, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, began fighting two years ago over who would control the area. Last year the U.S. brokered a cease-fire between the groups, but that collapsed in late July.

An inherently unstable situation like that was ideal for Iranian and Iraqi mischief making. Iran, which is said to support the P.U.K. clandestinely, has been sending small units into the area for months under the pretext that they were subduing Iranian Kurds. On Aug. 17, the P.U.K., with military hardware allegedly supplied by Iran, began a serious assault on the K.D.P. Iranian forces joined the action by shelling K.D.P. positions from Iranian bases.

After losing several strategic areas, Massoud Barzani, the head of the K.D.P., turned to Saddam. As one Western diplomat put it, "The K.D.P. said they were on the verge of being wiped out by the P.U.K. with Iran's help. The Americans weren't coming in and stopping the fighting, so they turned to Iraq."

Clinton's national security advisers first learned of the Iraqi buildup from spy-satellite photos. Washington immediately sent a blunt message to Iraqi officials at the U.N., saying it would be a "serious mistake" to move against the Kurds, but Saddam Hussein did not heed the warning. On Friday night Tariq Aziz, Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister, announced that a "limited military operation" had been undertaken in response to an appeal from the K.D.P. State Department officials confirmed that in some parts of the city, K.D.P. soldiers fought alongside Iraqi forces, and K.D.P. radio broadcasts also told people to turn in their weapons to the Iraqis.

American officials scurried to make sure Saddam did not misjudge the Western opposition to the Iraqi move. White House press secretary Mike McCurry said any Iraqi aggression would be "a matter of grave concern." Secretary of State Warren Christopher cut short a California vacation and rushed back to Washington. Meanwhile, from London and Paris came more warnings to Baghdad.

A simple matter of logistics, though, complicated an American response. After the Chicago convention, Clinton, Vice President Gore and their wives set off on a bus trip through the Midwest and into the South to kick off the Clinton-Gore re-election campaign. Communications between the White House and the bus were spotty at best. The bus could communicate with the White House, but the White House sometimes had trouble getting messages to the bus. At Paducah, Kentucky, the bus departure was delayed for more than an hour while National Security Adviser Anthony Lake briefed Clinton on developments by phone.

At a campaign stop in Troy, Tennessee, Clinton told a cheering crowd about some of the actions the U.S. was taking. In addition to forces going on "high alert," American jet fighters stepped up the number of sorties over Iraqi Kurdistan. Clinton also canceled a two-day campaign trip to Pennsylvania that was to have taken place early this week, but officials insisted he did so to rest his voice and not just to monitor events in Iraq.

The exact form of the Western reaction to Saddam Hussein is unclear. Said a Washington policymaker candidly on Saturday: "Right now we're trying to figure out what direction we should take." While the range of options includes military action either in northern Iraq or in the whole country, the White House prefers for the present to work on the diplomatic front. Saddam has been lobbying the international community, with some success, to loosen the U.N.'s economic sanctions against Iraq. The U.S. and other Western powers, though, are likely now to press even harder to maintain the sanctions. Being on the offensive is important in both diplomacy and warfare, and for now Saddam Hussein is on the offensive.

--Reported by Scott MacLeod/Paris and Douglas Waller/Washington

With reporting by SCOTT MACLEOD/PARIS AND DOUGLAS WALLER/WASHINGTON