WHICH WAY TO PEACE?

By LISA BEYER/JERUSALEM

Shimon Peres and Benjamin Netanyahu desperately want to win over Ron Gadish. An executive at a high-tech firm in the coastal city of Herzliya, Gadish still hasn't made up his mind whom to vote for in two weeks. He views Peres, the incumbent, as visionary but perhaps too starry-eyed. Netanyahu seems more grounded but worrisomely untested. With neither Peres nor Netanyahu yet attracting a firm majority in the polls, the decision in the May 29 prime ministerial election will come down to Gadish's vote and those of the other 200,000 uncommitted Israelis.

The role of those in the middle--perhaps 6% to 7% of the electorate--has not previously had the same importance because this is the first time Israel will directly elect its Prime Minister. The makeup of the undecided group reflects every class and ethnicity, but Gadish's ambivalence is broadly shared. "Peres is far-sighted, which is important," he says. It bothers him, though, that the Prime Minister has never personally experienced combat in a country where war is an enduring threat. "What's missing is the quality of action, and the hard questions in Israel are still security questions," says Gadish. Netanyahu, he thinks, will be tougher on security, but is inexperienced: "I don't see him as a man who can lead Israel through crises."

The balloting comes at a moment when the country must decide, in effect, how much it can risk on peace. To go with the imaginative Peres, many voters believe, means continuing the Arab-Israeli peace process at its current revolutionary pace, chancing that Israel will make concessions that may later prove calamitous. To go with the sober-minded Netanyahu means slowing the rapprochement to a less frightening speed, at the hazard of losing real opportunities to end the conflict.

The election did not always seem so tight. Late last fall, with Israel plagued by Palestinian terror attacks, polls showed Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and of the center-left Labor Party running behind Netanyahu of the nationalistic Likud. When Rabin was murdered in November by a right-wing assassin trying to sabotage the peace process, the country swung behind Labor and its new leader, Peres. Since then, subsequent terror strikes have eroded that edge to a few percentage points.

The resulting campaign has been exceptionally personal, focusing on the very character traits that so concern the undecideds. Peres has followed what Americans might call a Rose Garden strategy, emphasizing his official duties as Prime Minister rather than electioneering. He underscored his world status last month during a high-profile lovefest with Bill Clinton in Washington--where the Administration, concerned about the health of the peace process, made abundantly clear its preference for Peres over Netanyahu.

Labor's TV ads, which began last week, reinforce the image of a diligent leader, featuring a montage of the 72-year-old Peres through a career that has included stints as Defense Minister (twice), Finance Minister, Foreign Minister and Prime Minister (also twice). To counter Peres' reputation for meekness on security issues, he is shown, as commander in chief, in the company of Israeli military officers. In its ads attacking Netanyahu, whom nearly all Israelis call by the nickname Bibi, Labor seeks to exploit the widespread perception of him as a glib, empty suit. One commercial features ordinary people, presumably Likud voters, commenting on Netanyahu; they say over and over again, "Bibi's good looking," and "Bibi speaks good English."

The Likud campaign responds by painting Peres as Pollyannaish, irresponsible and apt to sell out Israel's interests to the Arabs. One ad shows him walking hand in hand with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and calls the two "a dangerous couple." As for convincing undecideds that Netanyahu is up to the job, the Likud's greatest obstacle is his relative inexperience; his only public service has been as charge at the Israeli embassy in Washington, U.N. ambassador, Deputy Foreign Minister and Knesset member. To make the 47-year-old candidate appear more statesmanlike, Likud ads place him in a wood-paneled, Oval Office-like setting. Playing off Netanyahu's military stint as a commander in an elite special-forces unit, the Likud zeroes in on his seriousness about security. "Many of you are afraid to get on a bus," he tells the viewers, referring to repeated Palestinian suicide attacks. "I'm not prepared to live that way."

On matters of substance, both parties have shifted toward the political center in an effort to seduce voters in the floating middle. Suddenly, Peres was making security his first priority, peace his second. Uncharacteristically, Netanyahu was talking about the importance of peace, albeit one that ensures security.

Peres, as the incumbent, was able to back his turnabout with deeds. In the wake of the last round of suicide bombings in late February and early March, he ordered what has turned out to be the longest ban ever on Palestinian workers crossing into Israel. In response to Katyusha rocket attacks on northern Israel by Hizballah guerrillas in Lebanon, Peres last month launched a massive 17-day bombardment of Lebanon. But the killing of more than 100 innocent civilians at Qana (see box) has alienated Israel's Arab minority, who make up some 15% of the population and whose ballots Peres had counted on. If they don't vote for him, Labor officials concede, their defection could prove fatal to Peres' campaign.

For its part, the Likud finally and officially buried old threats to undo the peace agreements that established Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. According to the party's new platform, a Likud government would "honor international agreements" and "recognize the facts created on the ground by the various accords." Netanyahu, having said he would never meet with Yasser Arafat, was compelled to concede that he might.

To bolster their moves to the middle, both parties are also appealing to the undecided directly. Labor officials wrote to each of 300,000 party members asking them to name any wavering voter they knew. The party has signed up 300 reserve army officers to phone personally each of the identified floaters to try to convince them to vote Labor. The Likud is adopting a similar program, and has created a Website on the Internet to try to reach and persuade the agnostic.

The Likud's swing toward moderation was greatly influenced by Yigal Amir's assassination of Rabin. "This is the one event that has tempered the campaign more than any other," says political scientist Aryeh Unger of Jerusalem's Hebrew University. "There's a postmortem charisma about Rabin that has pushed everyone toward the positions he espoused." Gadish, the floating voter, says the motives of Rabin's assassin account for some of his reservation about voting for Netanyahu. "I'd feel awful if Yigal Amir got what he wanted," he says.

In the final fortnight, the dueling ads will push hard at emphasizing the different views of life in Israel. Labor's spots glow with the benefits of the peace process. Happy, smiling Israelis are shown cavorting amid prosperity; youngsters speed down a highway in a yellow convertible while the Golden Arches of the newly arrived McDonald's beckon. The images in the Likud ads stress the flaws in the current peace: a bus decimated by a suicide bomber, a burning car hit by a Hizballah Katyusha.

Therein lies the weakness in Peres' current lead. Late last week a poll showed the Prime Minister with about 49% of the vote to Netanyahu's 45%. Wooing enough floaters to push him over the 50% threshold depends on a continuation of the respite from terrorism that Israel has enjoyed in recent weeks. Labor insiders confide they are extremely fearful Palestinian bombers will strike anew, especially given that security officials have evidence they are trying hard to do just that. According to a survey last week, most Israelis believe if there is no new terror attack, Peres will win, and if there is a fresh assault, a plurality think Netanyahu will triumph. It may be then that the Palestinian militants, as much as the likes of Ron Gadish, will determine this race.

--With reporting by Eric Silver/Jerusalem

With reporting by ERIC SILVER/JERUSALEM