LOOK WHO'S TALKING

By Michael Duffy/Washington

Bob Dole's game plan sounded too good to be true, and it was. After he clinched the Republican nomination in March, Dole was supposed to return to his promontory on Capitol Hill where, as a modern-day, legislative Zeus, he would hurl bill after bill down Pennsylvania Avenue at a cowering Bill Clinton, who would either have to sign on to the Republican agenda or become a veto-happy obstructionist. By convention time, voters would know who was boss.

Never mind that now. Throughout last week, while Clinton summitteered from Tokyo to Moscow, Senate Democrats trapped Dole into procedural back alleys that made him look ineffective at best and hard-hearted at worst. First he was forced to pull back an immigration-reform bill when minority leader Tom Daschle tacked on an amendment that would raise the minimum wage by 90'. Then, just as Dole was preparing to back a token boost in the wage scale, 20 House Republicans bid him up to a full dollar. Dole suddenly seemed behind the curve, a scrooge in springtime. And then, on Thursday, five Republicans abandoned Dole when he tried (and failed) to attach a plan for medical savings accounts to a bill extending health-care benefits to employees who change jobs.

No one has ever tried to run the Senate and unseat a Democrat in the White House. Dole's advisers remain deeply divided over the wisdom of doing that, as well as over many other issues. The main one is whether to cut a budget-balancing deal with Bill Clinton next month or make it the centerpiece of the fall campaign. At a meeting last week, campaign manager Scott Reed and Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour argued forcefully to forgo any agreement with Clinton this year and urged Republicans to campaign hard against the President's spending habits in the fall. Top aides to budget-committee chairmen John Kasich and Pete Domenici argued for a deal, a position believed to be shared by Dole's top legislative aide, Sheila Burke. Some people think this kind of negotiation is a waste of time. Conservative guru William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, said in an editorial last week that Dole is "likely to lose" this fall and said Republicans "must not defer" to him if it means risking G.O.P. control of Congress.

For now, Dole has hoped to stay above the fray and take the battle to Clinton. He asked his aides two weeks ago to prepare a series of speeches on foreign policy, economics, crime and values that make clear where he differs from the incumbent President. The first came last Friday, when Dole referred to Clinton 22 times, lambasting him for his "liberal appointments" to the federal bench and promising to "appoint judges who respect the rule of law," who "understand that society is not to blame for crime, criminals are."

Such speeches could resonate, but the chaotic process that produces them is evidence that the candidate is still not in control of his campaign. There is still no cogent internal process for drafting, editing and winning the candidate's approval of drafts. Last Friday's address, for instance, was subcontracted to a private company. Meanwhile, Dole's economic advisers remain deeply split over how far Dole should go on trade. Some, like Robert Lighthizer, want to take a tough line with Japan and China; others, with closer ties to the ceos who have helped fund the Dole campaign, want the candidate to push for free-trade agreements. Confusion over timing, as well as bickering among foreign-policy advisers, prompted the cancellation two weeks ago of a diplomatic speech at the Richard Nixon library and led Dole to deliver a trademark quip, "I didn't know I had so many advisers on China." The problem, however, is deeper than that: Dole appears bereft of core beliefs on fundamental issues, such as whether the U.S. should extend China's "Most Favored Nation" trade status and whether the U.S. should abandon its longstanding "One China" policy by offering more support for Taiwan.

Dole has gone hunting for reinforcements lately, but his aides have mishandled some of the approaches. Former Bush operative Mary Matalin, the wife of Democratic consultant James Carville, had no sooner quit her job on CNBC and joined the Dole campaign than internal feuding over her role spilled into the open. And so after several days of needless distraction, Reed asked her to step down. Last week a longtime G.O.P. operative put out a feeler to author Peggy Noonan, who wrote Bush's climactic convention speech, to see if she would assist on some convention-related "planning." But the move was so gentle that Noonan didn't take it seriously.

Oddly enough, amid all the confusion, a general consensus about strategy is starting to emerge. The preferred model for action at the moment is actually eight years old: in 1988 George Bush trailed Michael Dukakis by 16 points three months before the G.O.P. convention. So Bush and his advisers spent those months defining the candidate in a series of speeches. Dole has followed the Bush playbook through the primaries this year, and most of his advisers favor sticking with it through the summer, culminating in a defining address at the Republican convention. Another run at Noonan is inevitable.

Last week, when Dole sat down with Bush to discuss China and other matters, he could take comfort from the ex-President's experience. But not too much. Bush won the White House after facing one of the most hapless campaigners in memory. Dole is facing one of the best.