Monday, Feb. 05, 1996
IF NOT DOLE, THEN WHO?
By JEFFREY H. BIRNBAUM
Disappointed by Dole's address, some G.O.P. leaders began concocting other scenarios for winning the White House. TIME's Jeffrey H. Birnbaum spins out a few:
1 THE POWELL POSSIBILITY. The General was so mobbed at a Republican gala last week that he couldn't touch his beef tenderloin. If Dole is weakened by Forbes in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Powell-for-Vice-President movement is sure to escalate. But TIME has learned that the Christian right is preparing to promote a Dole-Gramm ticket instead. If there's a brokered convention, Powell could even be drafted for the top spot. But that's unlikely (the last such convention was Harding's in 1920).
2 KEMP AS KINGMAKER. The former football player is the second-most-courted Republican in the endorsement game (Powell is No. 1). If Kemp chooses Dole, it could be fatal to Kemp's disciple, Forbes. But Kemp is leaning toward endorsing Forbes soon because he champions Kemp's favorite issues, the flat tax and the gold standard. If Forbes doesn't get the nomination himself, he could throw his support to Kemp. If Forbes wins, however, Kemp could get his dream of being Treasury Secretary. If Forbes loses, cynics predict that Kemp can at least count on a well-paid sinecure in the Forbes publishing empire.
3 GOVERNORS' CHOICE. If it's obvious Dole cannot beat Clinton, Republicans will yearn to nominate someone else. The rules are flexible: theoretically a majority of the delegates could vote for anyone they wanted on the first ballot. But the G.O.P.'s leading lights, the Governors, must take control. They could ask their delegations to vote for them as favorite sons and take those blocs into the back room to decide. In that scenario, the most likely victor is Michigan Governor John Engler, a darling of the devolutionists.